Яндекс.Метрика

Issue № 4, April 2021, article № 11

Short-term grain balance forecasting technology

The article presents the technology of forecasting grain balances for the short term at the Russia Federal and regional levels. The technology uses previously compiled forecasts of grain and leguminous crop yields in the Russian Federation regions and in Russia as a whole, as well as forecasts of sown areas for their production. In addition, the calculations use forecasts of the Russian Federation population, developed in Federal State Statistics Service and the Ministry of Economic Development. The technology predicts the production of grain and leguminous crops at the level of regions and the Russian Federation, the initial and final grain reserves at the beginning and end of the projected balance year, the consumption (use) of grain in the regions, including: production consumption, processing of grain for flour, cereals, feed and other types of processing, grain losses, personal consumption of grain by the population and final grain reserves. The unknown variables in the balance equation are the importation of grain to the regions, including imports, and the exportation of grain from the regions, including exports. The difference between these two variables at the level of the Russian Federation represents the annual export potential of grain in the Russian Federation, which is projected together with the annual volume of interregional grain transportation. The technology allows you to forecast grain balances in the short term for their further use in forecasting the routing and volume of grain transportation between the regions of the Russian Federation and for export.

Issue № 4, April 2021, article № 12

Formation of new "growth points" of depressed rural territories of the republic of bashkortostan

The development of rural areas is one of the priorities of the modern policy of the Government of the Russian Federation. In 2003-2013, the federal target program "Social development of rural areas" was implemented, in 2014-2017 – the departmental program "Sustainable development of rural areas for the years and for the period up to 2020". On June 4, 2019, a new state program "Integrated Rural Development" for 2020-2025 was approved. In accordance with this and other federal programs, programs for the development of rural areas are also being developed at the level of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. In the Republic of Bashkortostan by the Decree of the Government of the Republic of Belarus No. 728 of December 12, 2019. The state program "Integrated development of rural territories of the Republic of Bashkortostan" was approved (as amended on December 8, 2020), which replaced the subprogram "Sustainable development of rural territories of the Republic of Belarus until 2020" of the state program "Development of agriculture and regulation of agricultural products, raw materials and food markets in the Republic of Belarus". In addition, two programs have been developed for the development of depressed areas of the North-East and Trans-Urals of the republic, mainly with agro-industrial specialization. This article analyzes the results of the implementation of one of them – the "Medium-term Comprehensive Program of economic Development of the Trans-Urals for 2011-2015", which was later extended until 2020, and now-until 2024. As a result of the study, the expediency of its adjustment and the inclusion of promising projects – new "points of growth" in relation to specific municipal areas, which are various areas of small and medium-sized businesses, tourism, agricultural production and consumer cooperation, is justified. The program includes proposals for the diversification of the rural economy, the development of ethnic entrepreneurship and ethnic cooperation, and ethnic brands of the Trans-Urals Region of the Republic of Bashkortostan.

Issue № 4, April 2021, article № 13

Differentiation between incomes of rural and urban population in russia

Preserving and increasing the human potential of the rural population of the Russian Federation is one of the most pressing socio-economic problems of the Russian Federation, the solution of which at the state level is associated with the implementation of program provisions to improve the standard of living of the rural population, determined primarily by its income. The increasing differentiation of the standard of living of the urban and rural population of the Russian Federation actualizes the rethinking of the social agrarian policy, which should be aimed at increasing the income of the rural population as a factor of attractiveness of the agricultural regions of the country. This area of research requires a meaningful analysis of the indicators of stratification of the standard of living in the city and in the village by income. The aim of the author's research is to measure the standard of living in rural areas in comparison with the urban population of the country on the basis of income differentiation indicators in the context of "city-village". The work was carried out using such statistical methods as: comparison, analysis of dynamics indicators; the MS Excel application software package was used. The reasons for the problem of labour shortage in rural areas are substantiated. The analysis revealed an increased social differentiation of the urban and rural population by the level of income of the population and an acute problem of poverty and poverty of rural households. The decisive factor in overcoming the gap in the standard of living of the urban and rural population is the growth of wages of agricultural workers, which at the moment does not fulfil its main function – reproduction. It is revealed that the growth of income and living standards of the rural population, as the main indicator of socio-economic policy in the field of agriculture, does not meet the declared goals.

Issue № 4, April 2021, article № 14

Zoning of grain production in the republic of bashkortostan

With the help of zoning of territories, it is possible to solve the issues of rational and efficient use of agricultural land. Purpose of the study: to carry out zoning of grain production on the territory of the Republic of Bashkortostan. The object of the research is the agriculture of the Republic of Bashkortostan. The subject of the research is grain-growing specialization. The work was carried out on the basis of the application of general scientific research methods within the framework of comparative, logical, statistical analysis and graphic interpretation of the results. Based on the grouping of municipal districts by the volume of grain production and by area for grain crops and their dynamics, competitive territories and a production reconstruction zone were identified. These territories have been designated as specialization zones. Also, zones with an average level of grain production were identified by types: territories of loss of leadership position, territories of multidirectional development, territories of promising development; and the zones in which the territories that are lagging behind in grain production are located: territories of unrealized development, unpromising development, depressed territories. In the central-western part of the Republic of Bashkortostan and in the Trans-Urals, there are municipal areas specializing in grain production. The possibilities for preserving the harvest for further use, transportation or processing in the zones of specialization of grain production of the republic were analyzed; it was revealed that the available capacities are not enough.