The aim of the article is to develop mathematical models based on multiplicative production functions with neutral scientific and technological progress (hereinafter referred to as NTP) for analyzing the dynamics of the volume of agricultural production in the Russian Federation. During the research, a methodology for assessing the impact of scientific and technological progress based on multiplicative production functions was used, taking into account "effective" labor. Assessment of the impact of scientific and technological progress on the dynamics of growth of the gross output of agricultural products before and after the sanctions. As a result of the study, models were developed that allow analyzing the dynamics of agricultural development in two time periods: pre-sanctions (2000-2013) and post-sanctions (2014-2024). It was proven that under the conditions of sanctions restrictions, digital transformation has acquired more significant significance as a tool for increasing the sustainability of agricultural development in conditions of limited access to foreign technologies and equipment. As a result of constructing and analyzing models reflecting the dynamics of gross agricultural output in two periods - before and after the introduction of sanctions, a significant difference in the impact of scientific and technological progress was revealed. In the pre-sanction period from 2000 to 2013, the impact was estimated at 70%, which indicates a sufficient contribution of technological innovation and modernization to production growth. Under the conditions of sanctions restrictions from 2014 and at the time of the study in 2024, this figure increased to 159%, which reflects a significant increase in the role of internal factors, including the intensification of digital transformation and technological adaptation of the industry to new economic realities.
In In today's rapidly changing geopolitical environment, agriculture is no longer just a traditional economic sector but has become an essential element of a country's sovereignty. Global crises, sanctions, and climate change have made food security a critical issue. Agriculture has evolved into a complex system that plays a crucial role in ensuring economic stability, social well-being, and Russia's geopolitical influence. The ability of a country to meet its population's basic food needs reduces its vulnerability to external shocks, and diversifying agricultural production becomes crucial to minimize dependence on critical imports. Agriculture is becoming a driver for the development of related industries, such as engineering, biotechnology, logistics, and the food industry. In the context of the restructuring of global value chains, the agricultural sector can provide a significant portion of export revenue, particularly in trade with friendly countries. Additionally, the development of rural areas and the creation of new jobs in the agricultural sector can help reduce social tensions and migration flows from rural to urban areas. Countries with a developed agricultural sector gain leverage in the face of global food instability. In the new geopolitical realities, agricultural development requires a comprehensive approach that combines organizational and economic issues, technological modernization, environmental sustainability, institutional management, and social development of rural areas. This article explores a comprehensive approach to assessing the factors that reflect the development of regional agriculture.
The article provides a statistical analysis of the dynamics of Rosstat indicators for dairy production from 2017 to 2024 (OKPD2): "Milk (except raw)", "Cream", "Dried milk and cream", "Fermented milk products (except cottage cheese and cottage cheese products)", "Butter and butter pastes". Forecasts of their monthly values for the period 2025-2027 have been made for the indicators "Milk (except raw)", "Fermented milk products (except cottage cheese and cottage cheese products)", "Butter and butter pastes". based on Winters triple exponential smoothing models, taking into account linear trend and additive seasonality. If the trends of 2017-2024 continue, the following production volumes can be expected: milk (except raw): in 2025 – 6306208 tons, in 2026 – 6552358 tons, in 2027 – 6798510 tons; fermented dairy products (except cottage cheese and cottage cheese products): in 2025 – 2702893 tons, in 2026 – 2682945 tons, in 2027 – 2662999 tons; butter and butter pastes: in 2025 – 369776 tons, in 2026 – 399069 tons, in 2027 – 428366 tons. Such a development of the dairy industry should fully ensure the country's food security for milk and dairy products.
Rural tourism is an important tool for sustainable rural development, but existing methods for assessing its multiplier effect have significant limitations, especially in conditions of a high proportion of the informal sector and a lack of statistical data. The purpose of this study is to critically analyze the methodological problems of assessing the economic impact of rural tourism in Russia and to develop a hybrid methodology that integrates quantitative and qualitative approaches. Based on the analysis of literature, official data from Rosstat, and field research in three regions (Krasnodar Territory, Altai Republic, and Kostroma Region), a modified input-output analysis model was proposed, supplemented with correction coefficients for the informal sector, seasonal dynamics, and accounting for ecosystem services. The results showed that traditional methods underestimate the economic contribution of rural tourism by 38-52%, especially in the field of employment and added value. Verification of the methodology confirmed its reliability (R2=0.87) and practical applicability for regional monitoring. The novelty of the research lies in the development of an integrated approach combining economic, social and environmental indicators, as well as in the empirical justification of the need to take into account informal activities. The practical significance of the work is related to the possibility of using the proposed methodology to substantiate government programs to support rural tourism and strategic planning for the development of territories.
The relevance of the study is due to the need to rethink and systematize approaches to organizing agricultural production in the context of digital transformation, climate challenges and changes in the global food market. The aim of the work is to form a typology of agricultural models and develop universal quantitative criteria for assessing their maturity, efficiency and applicability in various institutional and natural-economic conditions. The methodological basis of the study is the systemic, structural-functional and comparative approaches, as well as the concept of an extended utility function. The research methods are the analysis of statistical and normative sources, functional modeling, cross-country comparison and expert assessment. The stages of the study included: 1) generalization of theoretical approaches to the concept of "agricultural model"; 2) identification and characterization of six basic models; 3) formalization of each model through a utility function; 4) development of a system of universal quantitative indicators. The study resulted in the development of a substantiated typology of models (traditional, extensive, intensive, export-oriented, organic and digital), each of which is presented as a mathematical function reflecting target guidelines, resource base and external constraints. In addition, evaluation criteria are proposed and interpreted for each model. Scientific novelty lies in the conceptualization of the agricultural model as a utility function and in the proposal of a universal set of quantitative indicators for cross-country analysis. Practical significance is manifested in the possibility of applying the results in the formation of agricultural policy, digital strategies and the development of programs for sustainable development of rural areas.
The article analyzes the forms of state support for the technical modernization of Russia's agro-industrial complex (AIC). It examines key programs, including federal preferential leasing (Rosagroleasing JSC), subsidized loans (Rosselkhozbank JSC), and others. Data on budget allocations, dynamics of machinery purchases, etc. are presented. It has been revealed that agricultural producers use all support measures that allow them to partially compensate for the reduction in the machinery inventories. In 2024, the share of tractors purchased under federal preferential leasing was 20.1% of the total number, and the share of combine harvesters was 48.7%. The share of tractors purchased under subsidized loans from Rosselkhozbank was 8.8% and 12.8%, respectively. In 2024, Rosagroleasing provided a subsidy of 8.3 billion rubles, which allowed for the delivery of 14,238 units of machinery. The average cost of one piece of purchased machinery was 8.3 million rubles, and the average subsidy amount was 583,000 rubles (7% of the cost of the machinery). The increase in subsidies in 2024 by 23.8% more than in 2023, allowed to increase the number of delivered machinery by 104.5% (from 6961 to 14238 units). Therefore, we can talk about a kind of multiplier effect of the subsidy. In 2024, 72 units of machinery were purchased in the Kaluga Region, including 24 units (33.3%) under federal preferential leasing, and 18 units with subsidized loans from Rosselkhoznadzor (25%), the rest – at the expense of regional programs and own funds. It should be borne in mind that the same piece of machinery can be purchased and used for several support measures at the same time.
The article considers the problem of interrelation of state support of agriculture and results of realization of strategic priorities in the sphere of ensuring food security taking into account influence of natural and economic conditions of agricultural activity. The purpose of the work is to substantiate the direction of territorial planning of state support taking into account strategic priorities of development of agriculture. The research methods are statistical groupings in combination with analytics of median values. The whole set of subjects of the Russian Federation is divided into seven groups, each of which is divided into two subgroups. The primary feature of grouping is cadastral value of 1 ha of agricultural land; the secondary feature is the level of state support per capita. As a result, homogeneous categories of regions by similar conditions of agricultural management and sizes of subsidies are identified. In the context of categories of regions, the results of assessment were obtained characterizing provision with agricultural resources, output and profit (loss), formation of physical and economic availability of the main types of products, balance of aspects of food security for the set of types of products, resource intensity of achieved indicators of formation. Scientific developments will allow substantiating directions of increasing the efficiency of territorial planning of state support for the implementation of strategic priorities for the development of agriculture.
The article examines the scientific potential and innovative infrastructure of the agricultural sector of the economy. An analysis of the effectiveness of scientific research in the agricultural sector over a ten-year period is presented. The most significant results and factors hindering innovation are highlighted based on a survey of agricultural producers. It is proposed to create economic, organizational and legal conditions for increasing the innovative activity of business entities, ensuring the growth of competitiveness of domestic products based on the development of scientific and technical achievements.
The article examines the dynamics of agricultural development in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) with an emphasis on animal husbandry and feed production in conditions of extreme climate and permafrost. Historical and modern data on livestock, the structure of sown areas and reclamation systems are analyzed. Particular attention is paid to the problem of low productivity of fodder crops due to insufficient use of reclaimed land. The prospects for the introduction of digital technologies, including neural network forecasting algorithms, are being considered to increase the efficiency of land reclamation. Proposed directions for the modernization of the agricultural complex of Yakutia, taking into account climatic and technological challenges.
The article is an analysis of the dynamics of agricultural production in the Republic of Bashkortostan for the period from 2020 to 2023, with an emphasis on the role of small businesses and government support for the agricultural sector. The data of the region are analyzed in comparison with the data of the regions of the Volga Federal District and the contribution to the development of the agricultural sector of the Russian Federation is revealed. The contribution of all forms of management to the economy of the agro-industrial complex has been analyzed and it has been revealed that, in general, the agro-industrial complex in the Republic of Bashkortostan is developing positively; the region occupies a leading position in a number of areas. In general, the volume of production in 2021-2024 increased by 10.7%, largely due to the livestock industry – by 16.59%. The largest contribution to the increase in indicators is made by households and agricultural organizations, but small business forms are also increasing their volumes and numbers. The article pays more attention to the development of state support for agricultural producers. The most relevant and most popular is the Agrostartap grant program, aimed at forming a new cluster of agricultural producers in the region, thanks to which new people come to agriculture, new enterprises and jobs are created in rural areas, which, starting from a small level, grow into large business entities. Based on the data obtained, conclusions have been drawn about the presence of significant imbalances in the structure of the agricultural sector. Specific recommendations are formulated to improve regional agrarian policy aimed at ensuring sustainable rural development and increasing the competitiveness of the agro-industrial complex of the Republic of Bashkortostan. The conclusions and recommendations are of practical interest to government officials, the scientific community, and participants in the agri-food market.