Analyzing various methods and approaches to forecasting of indicators, the author concludes that the forecast of manufacture and consumption of agricultural products is not limited to the extrapolation of individual economic index. To ensure the sustainable production of agricultural products and raw materials necessary identify patterns in the change in production and consumption of main types of agricultural products and identify options for their interchangeability. Decision of complex tasks in view of all branches of agricultural production is still a complicated process. It is therefore proposed to solve the task blocks. Each block usually corresponds to one or more friends for the process industries. Of other industries accounted for using constants calculated empirically on the basis of actual, regulatory and forecast data for a particular region or in aggregate. Forecasting the development of territorial and sectoral structure of agricultural production should be carried out in several variants depending on the impact of internal and external factors. Forecasts should be based on an analysis of a modern condition of the agricultural sector, the main factors of economic growth and the estimation of their influence on the development of production in the future.
In the economic and social conditions in rural areas, there are significant differences. There is a real need to identify the level of differentiation of the territory to determine appropriate areas for development. The article presents the results of the evaluation of socio-economic security in rural areas of the Vologda region. The evaluation methods used for rating multidimensional medium and the total mean, and cluster analysis. These methods allow you to define a typology backbone industry, to consider the opportunities and threats of rural development, as well as suggestions for optimizing the most appropriate planning of territorial development programs, taking into account the socio-economic and agro-climatic conditions. Comparative evaluation of the current situation in the economic security in rural areas of the Vologda region made on the basis of statistical data on the state of security areas of the Vologda region in recent years, including socio- economic and demographic factors, to varying degrees, affecting the economic well-being and social infrastructure of rural life. Typology method of rating allows without any additional software to generate the rating on any number of the studied areas. That confirms the relevance of the presented methods of rating by the integral mean. Typology of rural areas clustering method allows us to supplement and clarify the results of rating. Cluster analysis method allows to classify multi-dimensional observations, each of which is described by a set of indicators of social and economic status of rural areas. Difference presented techniques is to determine the time series of basic statistical data. Rating evaluation conducted on the statistical data on the average for 20 years, clustering is presented in terms of a single in 2012.
Solving problems sectoral economic growth set out in the Concept of long-term economic development of the Russian Federation until 2020 , Food Security Doctrine of the Russian Federation , the State program of development of agriculture , food and raw materials for 2013-2020 , Doctrine , etc. impossible without the modernization of the formation and use of human capital in the industry, in accordance with the challenges of the innovation economy. In this regard, the author conducted a comprehensive study of human capital formation of the Moscow region, identified the main quantitative and qualitative characteristics of human capital, principles, factors and indicators of its use. During the study, the author comes to the sad conclusion that during the post-reform period in the Moscow region is narrowed reproduction aggregate agricultural worker . In this regard, the author identified unresolved issues and trends shaping and use of human capital of Agriculture Moscow region, settle new innovative economy challenges adequate directions, ways and mechanisms of development.
Reviewed economy in the agricultural complex of the Russian Federation, positive and negative tendencies of its development. Marked increase in food imports, despite the measures in his substitution of domestic products. In connection with the discussion on the economic Moscow forum analyzed the gaps in development of agriculture of Russia until 2020 due to changes in the global and national economy of the conclusion on the necessity of developing new state agrarian policy corresponding to the innovative stage of development of agriculture.
The article examines the stages in the development of state regulation, the necessity of strategic planning for agriculture. The author analyzes the adopted and implemented state programs, identified gaps and proposed directions of their development: creation of investment and innovation centers, review of the current financial and credit system, to develop a complex program of subsidies and regulation of, the formation of the system of income support, transfer of functions to support up-moves to the Federal level.
Main aspects of the activity of the Fund for rural credit cooperation development (frccd). Said that along with crediting Fund carries out work on formation of the scientific and methodological base of rural consumer credit cooperatives (credit cooperatives), provides Russian and international projects, participates in training for credit cooperatives.
The article was studied modern condition of food supply in the country and the regions (Astrakhan and Volgograd oblasts). To develop a strategy for food security at the regional level, the authors define internal and external threats. Among the positive opportunities for development in the regional food complex, the authors identify a rather high soil-climatic potential of the territory, the presence of conditions for development of highly efficient agricultural production, favorable geographic location, the availability of highly qualified personnel, the availability of certain innovative capacity and other
The basis for accelerated development of cattle breeding is not only the formation of highly productive livestock, but also to create a stable forage reserve. Development of fodder should become a strategic direction in the accelerated development of dairy cattle breeding. The author offers the following directions of development of the feed base: increase of areas under forage crops, application of modern technologies of cultivation and harvesting, the introduction of a sufficient amount of mineral and organic fertilizers, rational use of cultivated pastures on the basis of grazing in pens, work to create new varieties of forage crops, resume cultivation of maize for grain and silage, the expansion of sowing of cold-resistant oilseed crops, application of new technologies fodder procurement, storage and delivery from the storage sites to the farms preparation for feeding.