FORECASTING MEAT PRODUCTION IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION

DOI 10.32651/249-81

Issue № 9, 2024, article № 11, pages 81-89

Section: Problems of agroeconomic researches

Language: Russian

Original language title: ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЕ ПРОИЗВОДСТВА МЯСА В РОССИЙСКОЙ ФЕДЕРАЦИИ

Keywords: MEAT PRODUCTION, PRODUCTION FORECASTING, SARIMA MODELS, WINTERS MODELS, FOOD SECURITY

Abstract: The task of ensuring food security, among other things, is related to the timely forecasting of food production defined by the Food Security Doctrine of the Russian Federation. This article presents monthly forecasts of meat production (beef, pork) for the period 2024-2026, obtained on the basis of SARIMA models and Winters exponential smoothing, which have approximation errors of less than 5%. According to them, if the current development trends continue, meat production in the Russian Federation will reach 3.9 million tons in 2024, 4.0 million tons in 2025, 4.2 million tons in 2026; beef production – 0.39 million tons in 2024, 0.43 million tons in 2025, 0.46 million tons in 2026; pork – 3.5 million tons in 2024, 3.6 million tons in 2025 and 3.8 million tons in 2026. Thus, it is expected that the average annual growth rate of production in 2024-2026 will be in the range of 4-5% for total meat and pork and 7-12% for beef. Such development of production should fully meet the needs of the domestic market of the Russian Federation, ensure food security for the country, and also make it possible to increase exports in this direction.

Authors: CHurilova Elvira IUrevna