FORECAST OF RAW MILK PRODUCTION IN THE REGIONS OF THE FAR EASTERN FEDERAL DISTRICT

DOI 10.32651/242-101

Issue № 2, 2024, article № 15, pages 101-106

Section: Problems of agroeconomic researches

Language: Russian

Original language title: ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЕ ОБЪЕМОВ ПРОИЗВОДСТВА СЫРОГО МОЛОКА В РЕГИОНАХ ДФО

Keywords: DAIRY FARMING, REGIONS, TIME SERIES, FORECAST

Abstract: Based on the time series compiled using the in-formation on the production of raw milk in the leading regions (Trans-Baikal Territory, the Republic of Sakha, Primorsky Territory, Amur Region), a forecast for 5 years was built from 1991 to 2022. Autoregression and integrated moving average models were used as the main modeling tool. The application of this method involves the transfer to the future of historical trends, in other words, maintaining negative consequences in the production of raw milk in 5 years will lead to a reduction in production in the Trans-Baikal Territory by 0,20%, in the Republic of Sakha - by 1.21%, in the Primorsky Territory - by 8,05% compared to 2022. In the Amur Region, according to the forecast received, there will be an increase in production volumes by 2027 by 2.99%. In our opinion, the Trans-Baikal Territory has a fairly high potential for growth in the production of raw milk, since it has the maximum average level of the time series and the least volatility of the process. Milk production in the region is characterized by the lowest fatigue among other entities and is concentrated in the households of the population. In our opinion, for such regions, one of the ways to solve this problem may be the development of a state support program aimed at increasing the efficiency of production in personal subsidiary farms engaged in dairy farming.

Authors: CHimitdorzhieva Ekaterina TSyrenzhabovna, Garmaev Delgyr TSydypovich