AGRICULTURAL GROWTH: PARAMETERS AND LIMITS

DOI 10.32651/236-80

Issue № 6, 2023, article № 12, pages 80-89

Section: Problems of agroeconomic researches

Language: Russian

Original language title: АГРАРНЫЙ РОСТ: ПАРАМЕТРЫ И ОГРАНИЧЕНИЯ

Keywords: AGRICULTURE, AGRICULTURAL GROWTH, PARAMETRIC MANAGEMENT, COGNITIVE LOGIC, FUZZY COGNITIVE MODEL, REGRESSION ANALYSIS, STATIC ANALYSIS, DYNAMIC ANALYSIS

Abstract: The dynamic growth of agriculture for Russia in difficult geopolitical conditions is very relevant. In recent years, the volume of agricultural production in Russia has increased, and agriculture itself has become the driving force behind the country's economic development. However, the achieved growth in agriculture does not form the conditions for sustainable development of agriculture in the long term. Thus, there is a contradiction between the increase in agricultural production and the lack of conditions for expanded reproduction in the agricultural sector. This contradiction slows down the growth of agriculture and does not allow the full use of the agricultural potential of the country. We have formed an evidence base for such a contradiction. For this, the theory of parametric management and cognitive modeling technologies were used. We parameterized agriculture and built a fuzzy cognitive model to manage the growth of agriculture. The basis for building a fuzzy cognitive model was statistical data for the period 2000-2020 and correlation-regression analysis. A static and dynamic analysis of the fuzzy cognitive model was carried out. In the course of static analysis, a parametric imbalance in the system of managing agricultural growth was revealed. During the dynamic analysis of the model, scenarios for the development of agriculture were developed. These scenarios showed that agricultural management does not create the necessary potential for agricultural growth. We come to the conclusion that for the dynamic growth of agriculture, it is necessary to change approaches to agricultural management. Thus, the need for a new quality of agricultural growth in the country was substantiated.

Authors: Anokhina Marina Egorovna