SUBSTANTIATION OF FORECASTING PARAMETERS OF BALANCED DEVELOPMENT OF AGRICULTURAL FOOD COMPLEX OF KRASNODAR KRAI

DOI 10.32651/215-79

Issue № 5, 2021, article № 15, pages 79-86

Section: Problems of agroeconomic researches

Language: Russian

Original language title: ОБОСНОВАНИЕ ПРОГНОЗНЫХ ПАРАМЕТРОВ СБАЛАНСИРОВАННОГО РАЗВИТИЯ АГРОПРОДОВОЛЬСТВЕННОГО КОМПЛЕКСА КРАСНОДАРСКОГО КРАЯ

Keywords: AGRO-FOOD COMPLEX, BALANCED DEVELOPMENT, DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY, INTER-SECTORAL BALANCE MODELS, OPTIMIZATION MODELS

Abstract: The balanced development management of the agro-food complex is carried out through the regulation of the proportions between its elements. One of the traditional tools for controlling the balanced development of economic systems is inter-sectoral balance models. The total of features of agro-food systems as the objects of modeling in combination with theoretical and methodological problems of the applied use of balance models objectively necessitate the use of alternative approaches to substantiate the optimal proportions of the development of agro-food complexes at the regional level. Due to the fact that the task of achieving and maintaining the balance and proportionality of economic systems belongs to the competence of strategic management, the substantiation of optimal proportions should be based on the strategic goals of the system. In the Strategy for the Development of the Krasnodar Territory, its developers were unable to provide a systematic approach to assessing the prospects for the development of the agro-food complex, without specifying the direction and depth of its structural changes and parameters that ensure the balance and proportionality of the agro-food system of the region. To solve the problem of substantiating the parameters of the balanced development of the agro-food system of the region, it is proposed to use an aggregated optimization economic and mathematical model for balancing the region's agriculture and its food supply, which has a block-diagonal structure. Agricultural producers of various types (agricultural organizations, peasant (farm) farms and households), the volumes of possible import of certain types of agricultural products from outside the region, possible channels for the use of agricultural products and products of its processing present the blocks in this model, while the binder the block simulates the predicted balance of food resources of the region, and the criterion of optimality is the maximization of the amount of conditional profit.

Authors: Makarevich Liliia Olegovna, Ulezko Andrei Valerevich, Reimer Valerii Viktorovich, Semenov Vladimir Aleksandrovich