THE IDENTIFICATION OF RESERVES AND THE FORECAST OF ECONOMIC RETURN IN THE AGRICULTURAL ORGANIZATIONS

Issue № 11, 2016, article № 10, pages 56-62

Section: Problems of agroeconomic researches

Language: Russian

Original language title: ВЫЯВЛЕНИЕ РЕЗЕРВОВ И ПРОГНОЗ ОКУПАЕМОСТИ ЗАТРАТ В СЕЛЬСКОХОЗЯЙСТВЕННЫХ ОРГАНИЗАЦИЯХ

Keywords: CORRELATION-REGRESSION MODEL, CROPS, MANUFACTURING, SALES, PRODUCTION. COST RECOVERY, FACTORS

Abstract: In this research reserves are revealed and the short-term and long-term forecast of economic return in the agricultural organizations taking into account climatic conditions with use of correlation and regression models is carried out. By data for 2014 farms of all climatic zones of the republic have been broken into 4 groups on exponents of efficiency of return of factors and production: 1 - lagging behind (to 74‰), 2 - average (satisfactory) (75-99‰), 3 - average (good) (100-124‰), 4 - a front line (over 125‰). To farms of the republic, especially 1-2 groups (APO Chulpan, LLC Kumach, APO Druzhba, LLC Ural, etc.), it is necessary to increase production of grain crops, sunflower, etc. due to increase in productivity, and also milk due to increase in efficiency of cows and increase in a livestock. It is necessary to be engaged in improvement of quality of production and selection, identification of the favourable markets of her sale (to organize marketing service), to conduct careful work on decrease in material inputs on production. The state support needs to be given to those farms which successfully work (the 3 and 4 group), to especially advanced farms of the northern forest-steppe, trans-Ural steppe and a mountain-forest zone (APO Urozhay, LLC Nadezhda, LLC Yuldash, LLC Tolpar, APO of Salavat, etc.) but not that which, having good security with resources, receive low return from their use. The offered technique has a number of advantages before existing as allows making for each economy and a zone optimum correlation and regression models taking into account climatic conditions; to reveal unused reserves and to increase economic return level; without special expenses to make versions of forecasts for a short-term and long-term outlook.

Authors: Rakhmatullin IUlai IAlkinovich