Яндекс.Метрика

Issue № 9, September 2022, article № 15

Statistical Analysis of Agricultural Efficiency Using Machine Learning Methods

In the context of the ever-increasing sanctions pressure on Russia, it is necessary to have tools for forecasting key indicators of agricultural development, determining the degree of differentiation of regions by the level of efficiency and statistically significant models of the regression relationship of factor and performance characteristics of the industry. These tools and methods of statistical analysis will allow not only to support the solution of issues of food security and export potential, but also the development of rural areas of the Russian Federation as a whole and its individual subjects. This study confirms the presence of cyclical fluctuations in grain yields in Russia every 10 years. An accurate forecast of grain yields for the next two years, as one of the most important export products of our country, has been built. The auto regression model proposed in the article can be used to predict performance indicators not only at the country level, but also at the level of a region, enterprise or individual unit. Based on the multiple regression model, the key factors determining the change in grain yield are identified. High indicators of association between dependent and independent variables (correlation and determination coefficients) allowed us to establish that among the selected factors, the most significant impact on the yield during the study period from 2006 to 2020 is provided by the introduction of mineral fertilizers, the amount of state support, the ratio of investments of regional and federal budgets, climatic conditions. As a result of the implementation of cluster analysis, 5 clusters were identified according to the level of agricultural efficiency. Out of the total of 77 regions studied, 42 regions were assigned to clusters with a low level of agricultural efficiency. These subjects are of particular interest because they have a high potential to increase efficiency, and hence the volume of agricultural production.

Issue № 8, August 2022, article № 13

Improving the Classifier of Food Fish Products in the Context of the Digital Transformation of the Fishing Complex of Russia

The strategic direction in the field of digital transformation of the agro-industrial and fisheries sectors of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2030, the main goal is to achieve "digital maturity" in the field of agro-industrial and fisheries complexes. The ongoing digitalization of fisheries research in the near future will lead to a multiple increase in the volume of information collected. The need for its accumulation, processing and storage requires the creation of databases of scientific data and management systems for these databases. The article considers the need to update the All-Russian classifier of products by types of economic activity (OKPD 2) in terms of fish products, which contributes to filling other forms of federal reporting with an expanded list of aquatic biological species, which makes it possible to track the movement of fish products by type in the domestic market when moving from fishing areas to central regions and control the complete chain of use of raw materials from catch to consumption. The purpose of the article is to substantiate the need for unification and harmonization of national and international systems of description and coding of goods. For the fisheries sector, this comparability is of particular importance due to such reasons as the high share of export-import operations in the total turnover of the Russian fisheries, significant differences in the species composition of Russian catches and processing methods from the corresponding foreign indicators, as well as significant differences in national statistical accounting and classification of fish products.

Issue № 8, August 2022, article № 16

State and Trends of Cooperation Development in the Agricultural Sector of the EAEU Countries

Agriculture occupies a certain niche in the economy of the EAEU countries, its condition has an impact on the standard of living of a third of the population. Agriculture is a promising area of mutual cooperation and the development of exports of products with high added value. The largest share of agriculture in the GDP structure is observed in Armenia and Kyrgyzstan, also in these countries there is a high share of people employed in agriculture, and the share of agriculture in gross value added is 13.5 and 14.0%, respectively. In these countries, more than 90% of products are created by small forms of management, in Kazakhstan, the share of small forms of management accounts for 76%. The main producers of agricultural products in Russia and Belarus are agricultural organizations of various forms of ownership, they account for 60% and 80% respectively in the structure of production. The laws on cooperation and programs in force in each country have not led to an increase in the coverage of the majority of commodity producers by cooperatives, as in foreign countries with a developed cooperative system, where most of the commodity producers are members of at least one cooperative. Co-operatives are created mainly for the purpose of obtaining financial support from international organizations or the State. The members of the existing cooperatives have a low commitment to its activities. The development of the cooperative system provides for an appropriate legislative framework, the creation of new forms of cooperatives, the constant work of consulting centers, and effective state support.

Issue № 8, August 2022, article № 1

On the Development of a New Strategy for Innovative Development of the Agro-Industrial Complex: Prerequisites and Priorities

The development of the agricultural sector of the economy has become one of the priorities of the formation of a new model of socio-economic development of Russia. The real sector is becoming more and more innovation-oriented, new opportunities are being created in the country for the implementation of digital transformation and the transition to new development benchmarks. Life shows that new mechanisms are needed, including concepts, strategies and programs for the development of industries and sub-sectors of the agro-industrial complex. Back in the early 2000 s. a Concept for the development of innovation activity in the agro-industrial complex of Russia (project) was developed, approved in 2002, which laid the theoretical and practical foundations for the subsequent development of industry-based fundamental program and regulatory documents regulating the development and management of innovation processes in the agro-industrial complex, as well as the development of their specific directions in various areas of agro-industrial production, which would meet the modern requirements imposed on the industry contributed to the acceleration of scientific and technological progress and gave maximum economic effect. The purpose of the development of the concept of the development of innovative processes in the agro-industrial complex was to prepare a fundamental document containing the scientific foundations, reflecting the essence and content of these processes in their significance for the industry, as well as priority directions for the formation of sectoral innovation policy in modern conditions with the disclosure of methods and mechanisms of its implementation in relation to the peculiarities of agro-industrial production.