ASSESSMENT OF THE EFFECTIVENESS OF FORECASTING MODELS OF FINANCIAL INSOLVENCY OF AGRICULTURAL ORGANIZATIONS

DOI 10.32651/267-129

Issue № 7, 2026, article № 16, pages 129-134

Section: Problems of agroeconomic researches

Language: Russian

Original language title: ОЦЕНКА РЕЗУЛЬТАТИВНОСТИ МОДЕЛЕЙ ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЯ ФИНАНСОВОЙ НЕСОСТОЯТЕЛЬНОСТИ СЕЛЬСКОХОЗЯЙСТВЕННЫХ ОРГАНИЗАЦИЙ

Keywords: INSOLVENCY, BANKRUPTCY, FINANCIAL CONDITION, SOLVENCY, FINANCIAL STABILITY, SCORING ANALYSIS

Abstract: A wide range of macroeconomic factors of a political, economic, regulatory, socio-demographic nature have a negative impact on the financial condition of enterprises and organizations, and the impact of these external forces cannot be regulated by business entities. A number of multifactorial discriminant models for predicting financial insolvency do not fully reflect the true state of affairs in the conditions of business entities - they diagnose either a high probability of bankruptcy in profitable, solvent and stable organizations, or, conversely, a low probability of financial collapse in conditions of insolvent and chronically unprofitable enterprises. In this regard, this article evaluates the effectiveness of bankruptcy forecasting models in the conditions of each of the obtained groups of economic entities based on the grouping of agricultural organizations. Based on the assessment, three multifactorial discretionary models for predicting financial insolvency have been selected, which are the most effective in the conditions of agricultural organizations.

Authors: Kibirov KHetag Georgievich