THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE RISKS ON THE ECONOMIC SUSTAINABILITY OF AGRICULTURE IN THE REGION

DOI 10.32651/267-69

Issue № 7, 2026, article № 10, pages 69-76

Section: REGIONAL ECONOMY

Language: Russian

Original language title: ВЛИЯНИЕ КЛИМАТИЧЕСКИХ РИСКОВ НА ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКУЮ УСТОЙЧИВОСТЬ СЕЛЬСКОГО ХОЗЯЙСТВА РЕГИОНА

Keywords: CLIMATE RISKS, ECONOMIC SUSTAINABILITY, AGRICULTURE, REGION, ADAPTATION, YIELD, AGROINSURANCE

Abstract: A comprehensive analysis of the relationship between climate change and the economic resilience of the agricultural sector in the Kursk region, one of the four regions of the Russian Federation most vulnerable to climate risks, is being conducted. It is noted that the Kursk region has seen a steady increase in the number of hazardous meteorological events. Over three decades, the average annual number of hazardous events has increased by 3.2 times. A characteristic feature of recent years has been the increasing frequency of heat waves and soil droughts. Notably, despite the increasing climate risks, average agricultural yields are increasing. In 2023, grain yields reached 59.5 centners per hectare, a historical high for the region. This trend is driven by a combination of factors, including the intensification of production processes, the adoption of modern agricultural technologies and high-yielding varieties, and the favourable weather conditions that have prevailed in recent years. However, yield volatility remains high, with the coefficient of variation exceeding 30% for almost all crops. Based on a 26-year observation series (2000–2025), statistically significant econometric models were constructed with a quantitative assessment of the contribution of each climatic factor to the yield of key crops and production profitability. Regression models of yield and an analysis of climatic deviations from the norm were used to quantify the economic damage from droughts in the Kursk region, with an average annual value of 2.33 billion rubles. To increase the region's adaptive capacity, it is necessary to develop agricultural insurance with state support: increasing the share of insured area to 50–60%, introducing drought-resistant varieties and moisture-saving technologies. The resulting models can be used for: short-term crop yield forecasting based on weather forecasts; assessing economic losses from climatic anomalies; and justifying the volume of insurance coverage in the agricultural insurance system.

Authors: Aseeva Aleksandra Alekseevna