MODELING LONG-TERM GRAIN BALANCES IN THE STRATEGY OF EXPANDING GRAIN EXPORTS

DOI 10.32651/264-150

Issue № 4, 2026, article № 19, pages 150-155

Section: Problems of agroeconomic researches

Language: Russian

Original language title: МОДЕЛИРОВАНИЕ ДОЛГОСРОЧНЫХ ЗЕРНОВЫХ БАЛАНСОВ В СТРАТЕГИИ РАСШИРЕНИЯ ЭКСПОРТА ЗЕРНА

Keywords: ECONOMIC AND MATHEMATICAL MODEL, GRAIN BALANCES, LONG-TERM FORECAST, EXPANDED GRAIN EXPORTS, GRAIN CONSUMPTION, ENDING GRAIN STOCKS

Abstract: The article presents a model for compiling long-term forecasts of grain resource balances in Russia at the federal level, aimed at expanding annual grain exports. The model uses regional statistics from Rosstat on the values ​​of grain balance items for 2021, known forecasts of grain production from 2026 to 2035, and existing balance relationships between the components of the commodity balance equation. Based on Rosstat statistics on grain balances from 2015 to 2021, a stable statistical relationship was determined between balance components: “balance resources” and the size of final grain stocks. Using this statistical dependence, the model calculates the effective values ​​of the regulatory coefficient in the range from 2026 to 2035, which are used to determine the forecast balance items: final grain stocks and the annual volume of grain exports. The forecast of the indicator of the balance sheet item consumption excluding final grain stocks and grain exports is calculated using the author's formula, which uses such indicators as the forecast of grain production, the population of the Russian Federation in the balance sheet year under consideration, as well as the same indicators from the previous balance sheet year. The article calculates forecasts of grain balances for the period from 2026 to 2035 and presents effective values ​​of the regulatory coefficient that ensure: expansion of grain exports, achievement of the socio-economic needs of Russian regions for grain, maintenance of final grain stocks at the level of profitable profitability of domestic prices of grain producers.

Authors: Sobolev Oleg Serafimovich