DEVELOPMENT OF A METHODOLOGY FOR FORECASTING SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION IN THE REGION

DOI 10.32651/263-128

Issue № 3, 2026, article № 15, pages 128-134

Section: Problems of agroeconomic researches

Language: Russian

Original language title: РАЗРАБОТКА МЕТОДИКИ ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЯ УСТОЙЧИВОГО РАЗВИТИЯ СЕЛЬСКОХОЗЯЙСТВЕННОГО ПРОИЗВОДСТВА В РЕГИОНЕ

Keywords: SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, AGRICULTURE, SYMPLEC-CENTROID PLAN, ECONOMIC AND MATHEMATICAL MODELING, OPTIMIZATION, NET PROFIT

Abstract: Significant elements of improving the theory and methodology of forecasting are the analysis of theoretical foundations, the development of the methodology, its implementation based on empirical data and the assessment of efficiency based on monographic and statistical analysis methods - a simplex-centroid plan and optimization of the resulting indicator. This made it possible to adapt the design of the experiment and present it in the form of a polyhedron, the coordinates of the vertices of which represent the values of factors obtained on the basis of descriptive statistics, which determines a new approach to predicting the sustainable development of agricultural production. During the follow-up, an adequate model was obtained, which showed that the most statistically significant is the interaction of specific cost elements. Using a simplex centroid-based experiment design allows for timely identification of key cost-share interactions, ultimately facilitating informed management decisions. An important component of the methodology is the ability to optimize the response function, which makes it possible to assess the effectiveness of agricultural production.

Authors: Nechaeva Marina Leonidovna