FEATURES OF FORECASTING THE CHARACTERISTICS OF FOOD SYSTEMS IN THE CONTEXT OF THEIR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

DOI 10.32651/263-119

Issue № 3, 2026, article № 14, pages 119-127

Section: Problems of agroeconomic researches

Language: Russian

Original language title: ОСОБЕННОСТИ ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЯ ХАРАКТЕРИСТИК ПРОДОВОЛЬСТВЕННЫХ СИСТЕМ В КОНТЕКСТЕ ИХ УСТОЙЧИВОГО РАЗВИТИЯ

Keywords: RUSSIAN FOOD SYSTEM, MODELING, FORECASTING, SUSTAINABILITY, REPRODUCTION OF FIXED ASSETS, BEHAVIORAL RESPONSES OF PRODUCERS, GROSS AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT

Abstract: Forecasting the characteristics of food systems is a complex task, the solution of which is associated with the use of specific methods of economic and mathematical modeling. This specificity lies in the need to build a computable dynamic model of the food system that demonstrates a satisfactory match of the modeled characteristics with historical data. It is determined that the most important problem is modeling the behavioral characteristics of the aggregated entities introduced into consideration, functioning as part of the food system. The article shows that the food system contains several interacting subsystems functioning in the external environment. These include the subsystem of agricultural and food production, interregional and foreign economic exchange of food, and final consumption of food resources. The problems of applying dynamic models in forecasting the values ​​​​of the main characteristics of the food system in Russia - gross output and fixed assets of agriculture. An example of modeling the dynamics of gross agricultural output, where the main factor is the reproduction rate of fixed assets, is given. The behavioral responses of agricultural producers for a business-as-usual forecast scenario are estimated using econometric relationships between capital productivity and gross output. The investment activity parameter is derived from the identification problem using historical data for the period 2000–2023. It is shown that a disruption in the economic sustainability of Russia's food system over the forecast period from 2025 to 2035, accompanied by a lack of even simple capital resource replacement in agriculture, occurs when investment volumes decrease to 75% of actual levels. The proposed approach is a compromise solution that mitigates the negative impact of incomplete knowledge of the actual functioning of food systems, coupled with incomplete statistical information insufficient for identifying system dynamics models in the classical sense.

Authors: Siptits Stanislav Ottovich, Romanenko Irina Anatolevna, Evdokimova Natalia Egorovna