CREDIT ACTIVITY DYNAMICS OF DAIRY ENTERPRISES AMID CHANGES IN SUPPORT MECHANISMS AND SANCTIONS

DOI 10.32651/261-12

Issue № 1, 2026, article № 2, pages 12-23

Section: Problems of efficient management

Language: Russian

Original language title: УСТОЙЧИВОСТЬ КРЕДИТНОЙ АКТИВНОСТИ ПРЕДПРИЯТИЙ МОЛОЧНОГО ЖИВОТНОВОДСТВА В УСЛОВИЯХ ИЗМЕНЕНИЯ МЕХАНИЗМА ПОДДЕРЖКИ И САНКЦИЙ

Keywords: DEBT, DEBT-TO-ASSET RATIO, SANCTIONS, PREFERENTIAL LOANS, DAIRY FARMING

Abstract: The article analyzes the credit activity of dairy farming and agricultural enterprises for 2010-2024/2025 in the context of the restructuring of the credit support mechanism from a subsidized interest rate to a preferential rate, and the sanctions of 2014 and 2022. Rosstat data on the financial condition of large and medium-sized enterprises by industry is used. For dairy farming, the dynamics of indicators for 2010-2016, a period when official statistics are not available in the required detail, is reconstructed using microdata from agricultural enterprises in the region with developed dairy farming. Credit activity is assessed based on the amount of outstanding loans, the debt-to-assets and debt-to-revenue ratios, the number of borrowers, the average amount of outstanding debt and loans, and the distribution of outstanding debt among enterprises. The results show that the peak of credit activity in both agriculture and dairy farming occurred in 2010-2013. The response of credit activity to the first and second sanctions was different: in dairy farming, the largest reduction in debt occurred during the first sanctions, while in agriculture it occurred during the second ones. This is explained by varying levels of activity in import substitution projects and differences in government support schemes for loans and capital expenditures. After switching to a preferential lending mechanism, total debt on loans in constant prices increased in both dairy farming and agriculture as a whole, which can be seen as a slight revival in credit activity. The microdata shows an increase in the share of dairy enterprises that increased their long-term debt after 2017, i.e., farms that took out loans in 2018-2020. However, this occurred amid a decline in the overall share of enterprises that had ever obtained investment loans. The average size of short-term and long-term loans per recipient in constant prices increased by 10% and 20%, respectively, over the study period. There is extreme unevenness in the distribution of long-term and short-term loan debt among the enterprises in the industry, which poses a serious risk to the sustainable development.

Authors: Nikulina IUliia Nikolaevna