EMPLOYMENT AND LABOR PRODUCTIVITY IN AGRICULTURE IN RUSSIA: CHRONOLOGY OF CHANGES AND MODERN CHALLENGES

DOI 10.32651/2510-34

Issue № 10, 2025, article № 4, pages 34-40

Section: Problems of efficient management

Language: Russian

Original language title: ЗАНЯТОСТЬ И ПРОИЗВОДИТЕЛЬНОСТЬ ТРУДА В СЕЛЬСКОМ ХОЗЯЙСТВЕ РОССИИ: ХРОНОЛОГИЯ ИЗМЕНЕНИЙ И СОВРЕМЕННЫЕ ВЫЗОВЫ

Keywords: AGRICULTURE, STAFFING, NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES, RURAL POPULATION, LABOR PRODUCTIVITY, TIME SERIES ANALYSIS, SHORTAGE OF PERSONNEL

Abstract: The purpose of this study is a retrospective analysis of long-term trends in the dynamics of the number of people employed in agriculture and the development of a scenario forecast of its further changes in the medium term. The information base was the official data of the Federal State Statistics Service, covering an unprecedentedly long period from 1939 to 2023 on key indicators: the number of people employed in the industry, the rural population and the labor productivity index. Using the tools of econometric analysis of multivariate time series, including the Dickie-Fuller test and the Angle-Granger procedure, the initial hypotheses were verified. It has been established that the time series of the number of workers and the rural population are non-stationary processes of the first order of integration (I(1)), while the dynamics of labor productivity is a stationary process (I(0)). A critically important result was the identification of a co-integration relationship between the number of employed and the rural population, which confirms the existence of a stable long-term equilibrium between them and avoids the construction of false regressions. Based on the identified dependencies, a statistically correct distributed lag autoregression (ADL) model was specified and evaluated, adequately describing the relationships between all three variables. The scenario forecast until 2030 carried out on its basis demonstrates that the trend towards a reduction in the personnel potential of the industry is likely to continue. According to the pessimistic scenario, the number of employed people may decrease to 3.4 million people, while even the most optimistic scenario assumes only the stabilization of the indicator at the current level of about 4.4 million people. The study proves that, unlike the post-war period, the modern growth of labor productivity does not compensate for the outflow of the population, and demographic and migration processes in rural areas remain the dominant factor determining the crisis of staffing in the agricultural sector of Russia.

Authors: Gerasimov Aleksei Nikolaevich, Skripnichenko IUrii Sergeevich, Lelikova Ekaterina Ilinichna