DIGITALIZATION AND FORECAST OF STAFFING IN AGRICULTURE
Issue № 11, 2025, article № 13, pages 102-113
Section: Problems of agroeconomic researches
Language: Russian
Original language title: ПРОГНОЗ КАДРОВОЙ ОБЕСПЕЧЕННОСТИ АГРАРИЕВ В УСЛОВИЯХ ЦИФРОВИЗАЦИИ СЕЛЬСКОГО ХОЗЯЙСТВА
Keywords: AGRICULTURE, AVERAGE HEADCOUNT, MUNICIPAL DISTRICTS, SHORTAGE OF PERSONNEL, MODEL, FORECAST, DIGITALIZATION, DIGITAL TECHNOLOGIES, DATA STATISTICS, HUMAN RESOURCE MANAGEMENT
Abstract: The demographic decline and political tension in the Russian Federation have now led to personnel shortages in the economy, which especially affects the labor shortage in agriculture. Agriculture is a seasonally functioning industry, which affects the production activity of enterprises and, as a result, the demand for labor and the level of wages. The use of predictive models of autoregression and integrated moving average, reflecting seasonal processes based on periodicity parameters, allows to obtain predictive estimates with a high degree of accuracy. An important aspect of the study is the introduction of digital technologies for collecting and processing statistical data implemented on the Rosstat smart platform, which provides the ability to obtain up-to-date and reliable information for more accurate and timely forecasts of staffing. Digitalization also opens up prospects for digital labor management, the development of IT tools for the effective selection and distribution of personnel, as well as for the creation of educational platforms that promote advanced training and attract young people to agriculture. This study analyzed the dynamics of the average number of employees in agriculture in three municipal districts of the Mari El Republic with the most decreasing trend: Medvedevsky, Sovetsky and Kuzhenersky districts, specializing to a greater extent in crop production. A significant reduction in cultivated agricultural land in the region led to the closure of many manufacturing enterprises and organizations, a decrease in demand for agricultural personnel in these territories. The outflow of young people to cities is also important, which leads to the aging of personnel in the countryside.
Authors: Ignasheva Tatiana Andreevna, Kazakovtseva Marina Vadimovna