FORECASTING RISKS IN RUSSIAN GRAIN PRODUCTION

DOI 10.32651/256-106

Issue № 6, 2025, article № 12, pages 106-112

Section: Problems of agroeconomic researches

Language: Russian

Original language title: ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЕ РИСКОВ В ЗЕРНОВОМ ПРОИЗВОДСТВЕ РОССИИ

Keywords: FORECASTING IN GRAIN PRODUCTION, WHEAT PRICES, RUSSIAN COMMODITY MARKET, ECONOMIC AND MATHEMATICAL METHODS, MARKET RISK, ECONOMIC RISK, FORECAST, FORECAST ANALYSIS

Abstract: The authors consider the issues of forecasting risks in grain production in Russia in the context of current trends in the global grain market. Grain production in Russia is a strategically important industry that ensures food security of the country and has significant export potential. Grain production is exposed to many risks that can significantly affect the yield, grain quality and, as a result, the economic stability of agricultural enterprises and the country as a whole. Effective forecasting of these risks is a key factor in minimizing negative consequences and ensuring sustainable development of grain production. It is shown that forecasting grain production is a complex process that requires constant monitoring of multiple signals. Market risk associated with fluctuations in grain prices, changes in the export situation and competition in the world market has a significant impact on grain production. Forecasting the market situation, diversifying sales markets and using hedging instruments can reduce potential financial losses associated with unfavorable market conditions.

Authors: Kumratova Alfira Menligulovna, Plotnikov Vladimir Aleksandrovich, SHmatko Aleksei Dmitrievich