PREDICTION OF NURSERY DEVELOPMENT PARAMETERS

DOI 10.32651/252-128

Issue № 2, 2025, article № 16, pages 128-135

Section: Problems of agroeconomic researches

Language: Russian

Original language title: ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЕ ПАРАМЕТРОВ РАЗВИТИЯ ПИТОМНИКОВОДСТВА

Keywords: FRUITS AND BERRIES, SELF-SUFFICIENCY, YIELD, NURSERY, FORECAST, SCENARIOS

Abstract: A significant reduction in the area under the gardens during the reform period led to the undermining of the basis of horticulture - nursery, which significantly reduced self-sufficiency in planting material, increased the import of fruit and berry products, seedlings, increased the influence of foreign companies on varietal policy and led to a decrease in the prospects for their own breeding research. This article provides a justification for the parameters of the development of nursery. The forecast takes into account effective demand and the provision of planting material for planting gardens for an increase in the production of fruits and berries, which contribute to neutralizing the lag in gardening and import substitution of fruit and berry products and planting material. To justify the forecast parameters of nursery development, the determination of trend dependencies, calculation of the indicator of the compound annual growth rate, normative ratios, the influence of factors, and a scenario approach were used.

Authors: Tumaeva Tatiana Aleksandrovna