FORECAST FOR RURAL DEVELOPMENT IN SIBERIA IN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE BY 2050

DOI 10.32651/252-115

Issue № 2, 2025, article № 14, pages 115-122

Section: Problems of agroeconomic researches

Language: Russian

Original language title: ПРОГНОЗ СЕЛЬСКОГО РАЗВИТИЯ СИБИРИ В КОНТЕКСТЕ ГЛОБАЛЬНОГО ИЗМЕНЕНИЯ КЛИМАТА К 2050 ГОДУ

Keywords: RURAL AREAS, AGRICULTURE, CEREALS, OILSEEDS, ORGANIZATIONAL FORMS OF RURAL SETTLEMENTS, HYDROTHERMAL COEFFICIENT, CLIMATE CHANGE

Abstract: The purpose of the study is to forecast some characteristics of rural development in the subjects of the Siberian Federal District, taking into account natural and climatic changes related to agricultural production and promising forms of organization of rural settlements. The forecast change of natural and climatic characteristics in the subjects of the Siberian Federal District is presented, where it is revealed that the greatest increase in the average annual temperature by 2050 will be observed in the Krasnoyarsk Territory - 2-3°C. On average, this indicator will be 1-2°C in the macroregion. Such changes will create conditions for the expansion of acreage under key agricultural crops: cereals, oilseeds, forage. A model has been built to predict the gross harvest of crops depending on a number of factors: average temperature and precipitation changes, yield, Selyaninov hydrothermal coefficient, acreage, share of rural population employed in agriculture; energy capacity. The territories promising for agricultural development have been identified (the presence of fallow lands and positive natural and climatic changes). These are Turukhansky district of the Krasnoyarsk Territory; Tarsky district, Znamensky district, Tevrizsky district of the Omsk region; Ordzhonikidze district and Shirinsky district of the Republic of Khakassia. It is possible to create eco-settlements, agro-towns, scientific stations on climate change, forest and water protection settlements in these territories.

Authors: Petukhova Marina Sergeevna