SCENARIO FORECASTING OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF RURAL SOCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE

DOI 10.32651/251-112

Issue № 1, 2025, article № 15, pages 112-119

Section: Problems of agroeconomic researches

Language: Russian

Original language title: СЦЕНАРНОЕ ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЕ УСТОЙЧИВОГО РАЗВИТИЯ СОЦИАЛЬНОЙ ИНФРАСТРУКТУРЫ СЕЛЬСКИХ ТЕРРИТОРИЙ

Keywords: SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, SOCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE, SCENARIO FORECASTING, TREND ANALYSIS, ADAPTIVE FORECASTING METHODS

Abstract: Statistical data regulating issues of socio-economic development are presented on the example of municipalities of the Nizhny Novgorod region selected as a result of cluster analysis, provided in official sources of the Federal State Statistics Service. General scientific methods (analysis and synthesis, abstraction and generalization), specific scientific (special) methods (economic analysis, statistical and economic method) were used. A method of scenario forecasting of the development of social infrastructure in rural areas is proposed, integrating the analysis of long-term trends and exponential smoothing to obtain differentiated estimates and develop targeted recommendations. Based on the results obtained, three variants of forecast scenarios were compiled, obtained on the basis of economic and mathematical models, interconnected based on the logic of the study. The simultaneous use of these models makes it possible to increase the level of reliability and objectivity of the analysis of available information and the likelihood of scenario forecasts for the development of social infrastructure in rural areas. The development of social infrastructure contributes to increasing the competitiveness of rural areas and attractiveness, as well as the implementation of social guarantees for all citizens.

Authors: Nechaeva Marina Leonidovna, Demidova Elena Evgenevna