SCENARIOS CONDITIONS FOR LONG-TERM DEVELOPMENT OF RURAL TERRITORIES OF SIBERIA UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE
Issue № 11, 2024, article № 14, pages 103-108
Section: Social problems of rural territories
Language: Russian
Original language title: СЦЕНАРНЫЕ УСЛОВИЯ ДОЛГОСРОЧНОГО РАЗВИТИЯ СЕЛЬСКИХ ТЕРРИТОРИЙ СИБИРИ В УСЛОВИЯХ ИЗМЕНЕНИЯ КЛИМАТА
Keywords: RURAL AREAS, SUSTAINABILITY, CLIMATE CHANGE, SELYANINOV HYDROTHERMAL COEFFICIENT, SCENARIOS
Abstract: The purpose of this study is to develop basic scenario conditions for the long-term development of rural areas of the Siberian Federal District in the context of global climate change. As a basis for subsequent forecasting, it is proposed to use scenario forecasts based on global CMIP6 models of the sixth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change with adjustments to the calculations for the values of the Selyaninov hydrothermal coefficient. It has been determined that the starting point for the scenarios is the postulate about the predicted shift of natural and climatic zones in the territory of Siberia in the direction from south to north. The shift in natural and climatic zones in the Siberian Federal District will be a key factor in a possible change in the structure and directions of economic activity in rural areas. As a result, the authors proposed 3 scenarios for the long-term development of rural areas of the Siberian Federal District in the context of global climate change: “Climate adaptation” (adaptation of the rural economy to projected natural and climatic changes), “Climate mitigation” (development of measures aimed at eliminating or reducing long-term risks climate change) and “Climate crisis” (the absence of any measures on the part of local, regional and federal authorities and the population to adapt and/or mitigate economic activities to natural climate changes). The choice of a specific scenario allows you to determine the action plan necessary at the current moment to achieve the target image of rural areas.
Authors: Petukhova Marina Sergeevna, Voropai Nadezhda Nikolaevna