ASSESSMENT OF ECOLOGICAL, ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL EFFECTS OF LOW CARBON TRANSFORMATION OF REGIONAL AGRO-FOOD SYSTEMS

DOI 10.32651/2411-75

Issue № 11, 2024, article № 10, pages 75-81

Section: Economics and Ecology

Language: Russian

Original language title: ОЦЕНКА ЭКОЛОГО-ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИХ И СОЦИАЛЬНЫХ ЭФФЕКТОВ НИЗКОУГЛЕРОДНОЙ ТРАНСФОРМАЦИИ РЕГИОНАЛЬНЫХ АГРОПРОДОВОЛЬСТВЕННЫХ СИСТЕМ

Keywords: CLIMATE CHANGE, AGRI-FOOD SYSTEM, REGIONS, GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS, MODELING, INFORMATION AND ANALYTICAL SYSTEM, LOW-CARBON TRANSFORMATION, ECOLOGICAL, ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL CONSEQUENCES

Abstract: The adoption of the Low-Carbon Development Strategy of Russia sets an urgent task for the low-carbon transformation of agriculture in our country. The choice of development trajectories with a decrease in greenhouse gas emissions should be based on a systems approach. To solve such multidimensional and multicriteria problems, mathematical modeling methods are used in the world, allowing taking into account various compromises when choosing acceptable socio-economic and environmental consequences. The purpose of this work is to study the decarbonization potential of regional agro-food systems of Russia under various scenario conditions using the method of model experiments and to obtain predictive estimates of the environmental, economic and social effects of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The information and analytical system DECARBON_SH has been developed and allows to assess the decarbonization potential of agriculture, its variations in many regions, structural shifts in the indicators that determine the state of regional agro-food systems of Russia. The results of calculations performed in this work using DECARBON_SH allow us to state that low-carbon transformation will lead to large-scale structural shifts in regional agro-food systems, however, the increase in sown areas will be an important indicator of the economic development of national agriculture. The carbon load on livestock will lead to a shift in the industry structure towards the number of farm animals with low specific greenhouse gas emissions and to a decrease in the number of dairy cows. In the case of low carbon loads, the industry improves the self-sufficiency of the population for most types of food. Nevertheless, the virtual benefits from the sale of carbon units on the scale of the Russian Federation do not compensate for the losses of agriculture in the event of its implementation of a "rigid" decarbonization strategy.

Authors: Siptits Stanislav Ottovich