ASSESSMENT AND FORECAST OF THE ECOLOGICAL AND ECONOMIC STATE OF LIVESTOCK FARMING IN THE REGIONS OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION

DOI 10.32651/247-122

Issue № 7, 2024, article № 16, pages 122-129

Section: Problems of agroeconomic researches

Language: Russian

Original language title: ОЦЕНКА И ПРОГНОЗ ЭКОЛОГО-ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОГО СОСТОЯНИЯ ЖИВОТНОВОДСТВА В РЕГИОНАХ РОССИЙСКОЙ ФЕДЕРАЦИИ

Keywords: LIVESTOCK FARMING, ASSESSMENT AND FORECAST OF ECOLOGICAL AND ECONOMIC STATE, GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS, CALCULATION SCHEME, HYBRID EXPERT PROCEDURE

Abstract: The development of livestock farming in our country occurs in a wide variety of geographical, soil-climatic and socio-economic conditions. The presence of objectively existing natural and agricultural zones largely determines the sectoral structure and economic results of the livestock sectors of the regions. Such a variety of forms in this sector of the agricultural economy creates certain problems when forming strategic decisions in both the short and long term. The situation becomes even more complex in the case of planning strategies taking into account the limitations of low-carbon properties, when from many feasible solutions it is necessary to choose compromise ones, that is, those that reduce the carbon footprint, do not worsen the economics of livestock industries and solve the problem of providing regional populations with livestock products. The purpose of this work is to create tools with which you can obtain estimates and forecasts of the environmental and economic state of livestock farming in the regions. A hybrid expert procedure has been proposed and tested, with the help of which it is possible to assess in the short term the dynamics of livestock, productivity, greenhouse gas emissions, animal protein production, and also to calculate specific characteristics, such as: per capita animal protein production, its growth rate over the forecast interval, payment greenhouse gas emissions from animal protein, specific gross income of livestock products per unit of emission. The listed forecast indicators can be obtained under various expert assumptions about the rates of basic characteristics of livestock industries, variants of demographic forecasts, and the distribution of cattle between forms of enterprises. The work groups livestock production in regions, represented by a set of environmental, economic and social characteristics, and shows significant group differences in these indicators over the forecast (until 2030) time interval. The results of the work are intended for use in the process of planning low-carbon strategies for the development of livestock industries in the regions.

Authors: Siptits Stanislav Ottovich, Romanenko Irina Anatolevna, Evdokimova Natalia Egorovna