SIMULATION MODELING OF FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES OF AGRICULTURAL ORGANIZATIONS AS A DECISION MAKING SUPPORT TOOL

DOI 10.32651/246-76

Issue № 6, 2024, article № 11, pages 76-82

Section: Problems of agroeconomic researches

Language: Russian

Original language title: ИМИТАЦИОННОЕ МОДЕЛИРОВАНИЕ ФИНАНСОВО-ХОЗЯЙСТВЕННОЙ ДЕЯТЕЛЬНОСТИ СЕЛЬСКОХОЗЯЙСТВЕННЫХ ОРГАНИЗАЦИЙ КАК ИНСТРУМЕНТ ПОДДЕРЖКИ ПРИНЯТИЯ РЕШЕНИЙ

Keywords: SIMULATION MODELING, DECISION MAKING, CROP PRODUCTION, OPTIMAL STRATEGIES, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION, GRAIN SUBCOMPLEX, AGRICULTURAL INSURANCE

Abstract: Simulation modeling of financial and economic activities of agricultural organizations allows for analysis and scenario forecasting, evaluating the effectiveness of management strategies and making informed management decisions. This research helps agricultural enterprises optimize financial flows, reduce risks and increase competitiveness. The dynamics of changes in the share of agricultural products in all categories of farms of the studied subjects of the Russian Federation over several years is presented, which allowed us to conclude that the importance of crop production has increased recently. Simulation modeling was carried out for five grain crops, as well as technical and fodder crops, since they account for about 90% of the entire crop subcomplex. The study is based on data on crop yields for more than 30 years; average data on acreage for the previous 5 years were used, which allows us to obtain smoothed values in order to avoid extreme or random indicators over the past year; data on the cost of a ton of a specific crop according to the Federal State Statistics Service. Based on the results of simulation modeling, optimal strategies for growing crops on the territory of various municipalities of the considered subjects of the Russian Federation have been determined. Ten different types of strategies are identified, for which explanations and recommendations are given. The paper also examines the use of agricultural insurance for agricultural organizations as a decision-making tool in terms of the cultivation of certain crops.

Authors: Vinnichek Liubov Borisovna, Kindaev Aleksandr IUrevich, Moiseev Arkadii Viktorovich, Pavlov Aleksandr IUrevich