TOOLS FOR SUBSTANTIATION OF THE LOW-CARBON TRANSFORMATION STRATEGY OF THE AGRI-FOOD SYSTEMS

DOI 10.32651/244-104

Issue № 4, 2024, article № 16, pages 104-110

Section: Problems of agroeconomic researches

Language: Russian

Original language title: ИНСТРУМЕНТЫ ОБОСНОВАНИЯ СТРАТЕГИИ НИЗКОУГЛЕРОДНОЙ ТРАНСФОРМАЦИИ АГРОПРОДОВОЛЬСТВЕННЫХ СИСТЕМ

Keywords: MATHEMATICAL MODELING, REGIONAL AGRI-FOOD SYSTEMS, GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS, LOW-CARBON TRANSFORMATION

Abstract: The strategy for the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation with low greenhouse gas emissions until 2050 aims at a low-carbon transformation of agri-food systems. Foreign and domestic experience in substantiating strategies involves the use of economic and mathematical modeling. Based on identifying tasks, criteria and modern research opportunities, the article proposes tools for optimizing dynamic processes in regional agri-food systems. The main tool for calculations is a standard economic and mathematical model of the regional agri-food system, developed taking into account the requirements for the reproduction of soil fertility and limiting greenhouse gas emissions, the structure of which includes two interacting modules: a dynamic model of low-carbon transformation of the regional agri-food system and a static model for optimizing the sectoral structure crop production Calculations using a standard model were performed and analyzed using data from the Kostroma region for 2020. Solutions were obtained using different optimization criteria: environmental, economic and mixed types. Maximizing gross income while setting a constant rate of reduction in greenhouse gas emissions makes it possible to obtain two classes of solutions: with maintaining the positive dynamics of gross income, accompanied by a non-decrease in arable land and the number of dairy cows, and a fall in the gross income of the region’s agri-food system with unsustainable reproduction and a general tendency towards a decline in the number of livestock. The model can be calibrated to the specifics of regional agri-food systems and used as a tool for strategic planning of low-carbon transformation at the national level.

Authors: Siptits Stanislav Ottovich, Romanenko Irina Anatolevna, Evdokimova Natalia Egorovna