TERRITORIAL-CLIMATIC MODEL OF GRAIN YIELD IN RUSSIA

DOI 10.32651/242-107

Issue № 2, 2024, article № 16, pages 107-112

Section: Problems of agroeconomic researches

Language: Russian

Original language title: ТЕРРИТОРИАЛЬНО-КЛИМАТИЧЕСКАЯ МОДЕЛЬ УРОЖАЙНОСТИ ЗЕРНА В РОССИИ

Keywords: ECONOMIC AND MATHEMATICAL MODEL, MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION, YIELD OF GRAINS AND LEGUMES, FERTILIZER RATES, HYDROTHERMAL PARAMETERS OF THE REGIONS

Abstract: The article presents a model with a multiple linear regression formula, the resulting function: the yield of grain and leguminous crops in the regions of Russia and factors: average air temperature in the region from April to September, average precipitation in this period, the amount of mineral, organic and lime fertilizers applied per 1 hectare of crops, the area of ​​reclaimed land and the number of combine harvesters per 1000 hectare of arable land. The coefficient of determination of 0.87 reflects the adequacy of the model for the actual yield of grains and legumes and confirms the hypothesis that the resulting function is 87% determined by factors. The article presents 8 regions and the features of the difference between the model yield and the actual yield by more than 25%. The novelty of the model lies in the composition, number and ranking of influence factors on the yield of grain and leguminous crops. The model uses regional statistics from Rosstat to fill in the factor values ​​for 51 regions of the European part of Russia. The article provides regulated norms for the application of mineral, organic and lime fertilizers per 1 hectare of grain and leguminous crops. The recommended rates are compared with the amounts of fertilizers that were actually applied in the regions of the European part of Russia. The model shows the high importance of grain harvesting equipment in the formation of grain yield in the regions. The model is typical and can be used according to the presented scheme with a similar composition of factors for modeling and forecasting yield of wheat, corn, sugar beets, sunflowers, potatoes, vegetables and feed crops.

Authors: Sobolev Oleg Serafimovich