CORRELATION AND REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF GRAIN EXPORTS OF RUSSIA

DOI 10.32651/231-103

Issue № 12, 2023, article № 14, pages 103-106

Section: Agrofood market

Language: Russian

Original language title: КОРРЕЛЯЦИОННО-РЕГРЕССИОННЫЙ АНАЛИЗ ЗЕРНОВОГО ЭКСПОРТА РОССИИ

Keywords: GRAIN EXPORTS, GRAIN PRODUCTION, GRAIN RESERVES, CORRELATION AND REGRESSION ANALYSIS, MULTICOLLINEARITY, REGRESSION EQUATION

Abstract: The article provides a correlation analysis of the indicators of the grain balance of the Russian Federation for the period from 2002 to 2021. The interrelationships of production, processing, industrial and personal consumption, exports, imports, stocks and losses are established. An assessment of the tightness of the relationship of indicators is given. Multicollinear relationships are defined. To form a regression equation determining the forecast value of grain exports, key explanatory variables (factors) were selected – stocks (grain) at the beginning of the period and production (gross harvest in weight after completion). A regression equation (of grain exports) with high reliability has been formed. The reasons for the discrepancy between empirical and actual values are established.

Authors: Sokolov Sergei Lvovich