PROSPECTS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE GRAIN SUBCOMPLEX
DOI 10.32651/2312-95
Issue № 12, 2023, article № 13, pages 95-102
Section: Agrofood market
Language: Russian
Original language title: ПЕРСПЕКТИВЫ РАЗВИТИЯ ЗЕРНОВОГО ПОДКОМПЛЕКСА
Keywords: GRAIN SUBCOMPLEX, STRUCTURAL CHANGES, HALL-TIDEMAN INDEX, PRODUCTION CONCENTRATION
Abstract: The article presents the results of studies of current trends, dynamics and structure of grain production over a long period in the territorial aspect, as well as in the context of types of grain crops. Features of changes in the scale of the contribution of regions of the Russian Federation to the grain balance and assessment of the direction of trends will make it possible to determine the level of sustainability of grain production volumes in general and its forecast parameters. In comparison with the pre-reform period (1990), the evolution of shifts in the structure of production volumes of certain types of grains with upward and downward dynamics is considered.Groups of regions of the country are identified depending on the differences in the growth rates of grain production, which determine the existing territorial characteristics of its distribution. Using the Hall-Tideman index, the level of concentration of grain production volumes in the federal districts of the Russian Federation was calculated in 2018-2022. relative to 1986-1990 and its change.It was noted that the Hall-Tideman concentration indices increased in all federal districts, except for the Southern Federal District and the North Caucasus Federal District. It is growing to the greatest extent in the regions under the influence of processes of reduction in grain production. However, only 1-2 subjects of the Federation have the most significant concentration of grain production.At the same time, in a number of federal districts of the country, grain crops are distributed more evenly and the regions here are more equal in production volumes. Consequently, transformational changes in the territorial structure determine the prospects for the development of grain production in the context of the subjects of the Federation and the country as a whole.
Authors: Nikonova Galina Nikolaevna, SHirokov Sergei Nikolaevich, Trushkina Irina Ryksibaevna