A METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH TO ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE RISKS ON THE ECONOMIC PARAMETERS OF FOOD SECURITY

DOI 10.32651/2310-73

Issue № 10, 2023, article № 13, pages 73-80

Section: Problems of agroeconomic researches

Language: Russian

Original language title: МЕТОДИЧЕСКИЙ ПОДХОД К ОЦЕНКЕ ВЛИЯНИЯ КЛИМАТИЧЕСКИХ РИСКОВ НА ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИЕ ПАРАМЕТРЫ ОБЕСПЕЧЕНИЯ ПРОДОВОЛЬСТВЕННОЙ БЕЗОПАСНОСТИ

Keywords: AGRO-FOOD COMPLEX, FOOD SECURITY, CLIMATE RISKS, PRICE INDEX, CONSUMPTION, ASSESSMENT

Abstract: To improve the efficiency of the implementation of the state agrarian policy aimed at sustainable food security, the analysis and assessment of the impact of the effects of global climate change on indicators of food affordability is of paramount importance. The latter is largely determined by the dynamics of consumer prices for food products purchased by households. Using mathematical and statistical methods, we analyzed the time series of producer price indices for livestock and crop products, as well as the number and duration of dangerous weather events recorded by Roshydromet in the Russian Federation from 2002 to 2019. The most significant relationship was found between abnormal heat and consumer price indices for sugar and fruits and vegetables, including potatoes, as well as between prolonged downpours and consumer price indices for eggs. The proposed methodological approach includes an analysis of the dynamics of indicators of such an important indicator as the consumption of basic food products in households in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. The author carried out the distribution of the number of regions in terms of deficit/surplus indicators for a number of food products, calculated the ratio of actual per capita consumption to the corresponding indicator of the recommended consumption rate for a type of food in the regions. On the example of certain types of food, a time interval was chosen with a high amplitude of fluctuations in the dynamics of climate risks (their total number and the most significant type of risk). The response was determined in the form of a change in the consumer price and a shift in the gradation of regions in terms of the consumption of food products. The implementation of the proposed methodology has made it possible to obtain significant results from assessing the impact of climate risks on the economic parameters of ensuring food security.

Authors: Kadomtseva Marina Evgenevna