MODELING AND FORECASTING OF MILK PRICES IN THE REGION (USING THE EXAMPLE OF THE CHUVASH REPUBLIC)

DOI 10.32651/238-95

Issue № 8, 2023, article № 15, pages 95-101

Section: Problems of agroeconomic researches

Language: Russian

Original language title: МОДЕЛИРОВАНИЕ И ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЕ ЦЕНЫ НА МОЛОКО В РЕГИОНЕ (НА ПРИМЕРЕ ЧУВАШСКОЙ РЕСПУБЛИКИ)

Keywords: ECONOMETRIC MODELING, MILK PRICE, FORECASTING, SEASONALITY

Abstract: Currently, the Russian economy is forced to adapt to new realities in the conditions of changing external and internal market conditions, a high degree of uncertainty, the negative nature of consumer expectations, unstable exchange rate, strengthening of state regulation of the economy. In conditions of price instability, all participants in the agricultural market face the need for serious adjustments to their plans, and need a scientifically based assessment of possible price ranges at least for the near future. In this study, a retrospective analysis of the price of raw milk in the Chuvash Republic was carried out on the basis of quarterly data for 5 years. The main patterns, the reversal of trends in 2022 and its causes are revealed. The structure of the time series is determined: based on the analysis of the values of the autocorrelation function, the presence of a trend and a periodicity equal to four quarters is proved. Based on statistical data for 2018-2022, an adequate model of the time series is constructed.

Authors: Vasileva Olga Gennadevna, Dereviannykh Evgeniia Anatolevna