FORECASTING THE GROSS HARVEST OF GRAIN AND LEGUMINOUS CROPS IN THE REGIONS OF THE FAR EASTERN FEDERAL DISTRICT

DOI 10.32651/236-90

Issue № 6, 2023, article № 13, pages 90-96

Section: Problems of agroeconomic researches

Language: Russian

Original language title: ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЕ ВАЛОВОГО СБОРА ЗЕРНА И ЗЕРНОБОБОВЫХ КУЛЬТУР В РЕГИОНАХ ДФО

Keywords: YIELD FORECASTING, HIGH-RISK FARMING REGIONS, GROSS YIELD VOLATILITY, GRAIN AND LEGUME CROPS, ACCOUNTING FOR CYCLICAL FLUCTUATIONS

Abstract: The article is devoted to forecasting the gross harvest of grain and leguminous crops in the regions of high-risk agriculture based on the models of cyclical fluctuations. The models of the cyclical component were built on the basis of the correlation function, the autocorrelation function, as well as using spectral analysis. We analyzed the general characteristics of the time series from 1990 till 2021 of the gross harvest of grains and leguminous plants in the regions of the Far Eastern Federal District (FEFD). On the basis of the trend and cyclical component models the forecast of the gross harvest of grains and leguminous plants in four regions of the FEFD for the period of 2022-2024 was made. In regions with a strong dependence of agriculture on natural-climatic factors, it was proposed to forecast the gross harvest of grains and legumes in three stages: to identify the overall trend, then determine the cyclical component and only at the third stage proceed with the forecasting. The result obtained by the authors for the year 2022 was compared with the results of the gross harvest in the Republic of Buryatia on the basis of preliminary data from the Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Buryatia and was fully confirmed. The article proposes to use these models for further research in relation to individual types of crops, as well as taking into account the influence of various factors

Authors: CHimitdorzhieva Ekaterina TSyrenzhabovna, Vanchikova Elena Nikolaevna, Sanzhina Olga Petrovna, Itygilova Elena IUrevna