AGGREGATED DYNAMIC MODEL OF ADAPTATION OF AGRI-FOOD SYSTEMS TO ADVERSE CLIMATIC CHANGES

DOI 10.32651/236-75

Issue № 6, 2023, article № 11, pages 75-79

Section: Problems of agroeconomic researches

Language: Russian

Original language title: АГРЕГИРОВАННАЯ ДИНАМИЧЕСКАЯ МОДЕЛЬ АДАПТАЦИИ АГРОПРОДОВОЛЬСТВЕННЫХ СИСТЕМ К НЕБЛАГОПРИЯТНЫМ КЛИМАТИЧЕСКИМ ИЗМЕНЕНИЯМ

Keywords: CLIMATE ADAPTATION, REGIONAL AGRO-FOOD SYSTEMS, AGGREGATED ECONOMIC AND MATHEMATICAL MODELS, TECHNOLOGICAL BASIS OF THE SYSTEM

Abstract: Adaptation of agro-food systems to adverse climate change is a complex problem, the decisions of which must be made at different levels of the hierarchy: from the commodity producer to the regional and federal regulators. The complex interdisciplinary nature of the problem requires a variety of tools to analyze the features of the interaction between the climatic, agroecological, and production and economic subsystems, taking into account adaptive response measures. An important role in finding a way out of this problematic situation is played by methods of economic and mathematical modeling, represented by models of varying complexity and structure. At the initial stage - exploratory analysis - the tasks of studying the responses of the agro-food system, represented in an extremely aggregated form by small-scale models, come to the fore. Thus, the fundamental connections and patterns of functioning of the agro-food system, described in terms of "gross agricultural output", "agro-ecological restrictions on production volumes", "level of technological development" are revealed to the researcher. The latter, considered as an object of regulation, is to some extent capable of solving the problem of adaptive control in response to unfavorable climatic dynamics. This ability depends both on the amount of investment by the agri-food system in technological development and human capital, and on the level of state support for these same areas.

Authors: Siptits Stanislav Ottovich