THE INFLUENCE OF NON-MARKET FORCES ON THE BALANCE IN THE MARKETS OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS OF THE SMOLENSK REGION

DOI 10.32651/235-107

Issue № 5, 2023, article № 15, pages 107-112

Section: Problems of agroeconomic researches

Language: Russian

Original language title: ВЛИЯНИЕ НЕРЫНОЧНЫХ СИЛ НА РАВНОВЕСИЕ НА РЫНКАХ СЕЛЬСКОХОЗЯЙСТВЕННОЙ ПРОДУКЦИИ СМОЛЕНСКОЙ ОБЛАСТИ

Keywords: PF+PE-МОДЕЛЬ, SCENARIO ANALYSIS, PF+PE MODEL, PARTIAL EQUILIBRIUM, MATHEMATICAL MODELING, AGRICULTURAL RAW MATERIALS AND FOOD MARKET, NON-MARKET FACTORS, FOOD SECURITY

Abstract: The article discusses the theoretical foundations of regulating the market of agricultural raw materials and food, the role of the state in this process. The article analyzes how the balance in the agricultural products market of the Smolensk region could be with a reduction in the impact of non-market forces from 100% satisfaction of the population's need for basic foodstuffs to almost complete removal of control. The research is carried out based on the results of a computer experiment based on a partial equilibrium model in the markets of agricultural products of the subjects of the Russian Federation, which is based on the innovative architecture of the PF+PE model developed at the A.A. Nikonov VIAPI. The scenarios included in the model differ in the level of recommended medical nutrition standards for all products included in the model. The simulation results are considered correct under the assumption that, in addition to reducing the permissible level of consumption, the remaining conditions will remain unchanged. Through scenario analysis, changes in consumption volumes, food prices, output and sales volumes, exports and imports, as well as in the size of the main production resources used in agricultural production are considered. Based on the identified trends, it is concluded that only a slight weakening of non-market forces can have a positive impact on the situation on the market of agricultural products in the region. The main consequences that such a weakening can lead to are listed.

Authors: Babkina Anastasiia Valentinovna, Puchkova Olga Sergeevna, Svetlova Galina Nikolaevna