FORECASTING LABOR RESOURCES AT THE MUNICIPAL LEVEL

DOI 10.32651/2212-96

Issue № 12, 2022, article № 14, pages 84-89

Section: Social problems of rural territories

Language: Russian

Original language title: ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЕ ТРУДОВЫХ РЕСУРСОВ НА МУНИЦИПАЛЬНОМ УРОВНЕ

Keywords: MUNICIPALITY, FORECAST, NUMBER OF WORKING-AGE POPULATION, FACTORS

Abstract: Assessment of labour resources at the level of municipalities has a number of difficulties associated with two-level territorial planning, insufficient communication of strategic decisions of the municipal and regional levels, restrictions on municipal statistics. The article presents the results of forecasting the number of working-age population using special Excel functions and based on the movement of age groups according to the Rosstat method. According to the trend forecast, a decrease in the population will be observed in the age group of 75-79 years. In both forecasts, the older group is dominated by the female population. The dependence of the population on the level of social infrastructure development is shown. It was concluded that it is necessary to increase the mobility of citizens and return to rural areas of labour resources employed outside them. The implementation of investment projects in the municipality that create jobs will increase the share of the average number of employees of organizations by only 0.5%.

Authors: Rensh Marina Aleksandrovna, Semenov Aleksandr Vladimirovich, Semenov Vladimir Aleksandrovich