FORECASTING OF DEVELOPMENT AND PLACEMENT OF A GRAIN FARM IN THE COUNTRY

Issue № 5, 2015, article № 11, pages 68-73

Section: Location of production

Language: Russian

Original language title: ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЕ РАЗВИТИЯ И РАЗМЕЩЕНИЯ ЗЕРНОВОГО ХОЗЯЙСТВА В СТРАНЕ

Keywords: COMPETITIVENESS, FOOD SECURITY, PRIORITIES, ECONOMIC AND MATHEMATICAL METHODS, MODELING, PRODUCTIVITY, LOCATION, STRUCTURAL CHANGES

Abstract: There is the basic directions and a forecast of distribution and specialization branches of agriculture in article. Authors proposed methodology of forecasting territorial and sectoral division of labor in agri-culture, based on the priority position in agriculture industries, which are determined by their crucial role in meeting the needs of the population in basic foodstuffs. Future production of major agricultural products are based on the needs and the tasks of the Doctrine food security, as well as the State program of agricultural development and regulation of agricultural products, raw materials and food for 2013-2020. For definition of necessary food resources temporary ranks for the 23-year period of supervision on the main groups of agricultural production were created, the forecast of productivity for specialized zones of cultivation was made. Results of calculations show that it is expedient to place the main production of winter wheat in regions of the North Caucasus, the Central Chernozem region: in the Stavropol and Krasnodar regions, the Rostov, Volgograd and Voronezh areas. Here it is possible to concentrate 94‰ of cultivated areas, to receive 96‰ of total yield. The main part of crops of a spring-sown field needs to be concentrated in regions of the Volga region, the Urals, Siberia, at con-centration in them about 94‰ of cultivated areas, 93‰ of total yield.

Authors: Petrova Irina Fedorovna, Sveshnikova Irina Vasilevna, Malykh Natalia Ilinichna