MODELING AND ANALYSIS OF PROJECTS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE BAKERY SECTOR IN THE REGION

DOI 10.32651/229-92

Issue № 9, 2022, article № 14, pages 92-99

Section: Problems of agroeconomic researches

Language: Russian

Original language title: МОДЕЛИРОВАНИЕ И АНАЛИЗ ПРОЕКТОВ РАЗВИТИЯ ХЛЕБОПЕКАРНОГО СЕКТОРА РЕГИОНА

Keywords: BAKERY INDUSTRY, MODELING, INVESTMENT PROJECT ANALYSIS, REGIONAL PROGRAM

Abstract: The analysis of investment projects for the construction of bakery enterprises and infrastructure facilities based on the results of optimization of their location allows us to develop a program for the development of the bakery sector of a remote subsidized region, ensuring an increase in the competitiveness of local producers. The study reveals the specifics of the combined application of methods of investment project analysis and mathematical modeling for optimal location of capacities of bakery enterprises of various productivity and capacities of raw material supplying centers. The proposed approach allows making evidence-based decisions on the development of the bakery sector which makes it possible not only to ensure the highest efficiency of the sector, but also to achieve economic and physical accessibility of bread and bakery products for the population. The analysis of the baking industry of the Republic of Karelia, a remote northern region, where the problems of providing bread products to the population are particularly acute, is carried out. A methodological approach to the development of a program for the development and territorial placement of the baking entities in the region is described. The effectiveness of investment projects for the creation of bakeries and a network of distribution centers supplying them with raw materials is evaluated, and the fair distribution of income among all participants of the multi component project is provided. The fairness of income distribution is ensured by equalizing the ratios of the amount of discounted benefits to the amount of discounted costs of participants for the entire accounting period of the project. That is, participants receive the same income per unit of costs incurred (both current and capital). At the same time, multi-time cost flows of participants are brought into a comparable form using discounting, discounting can be carried out at individual discount rates that take into account the differences of participants in their opportunity cost of capital, and, finally, since only incremental net benefits are used in cash-flow calculations, there is an opportunity to use individual lost benefits that participants could receive in a situation "Without" the project.

Authors: Koshelev Valerii Mikhailovich, Vorozhtsova Liudmila Vladimirovna, Aleksanov Dmitrii Semenovich, CHekmareva Natalia Viacheslavovna