FUZZY-POSSIBLE APPROACH WHEN EVALUATING AGRICULTURAL TECHNOLOGIES BASED ON EXPLICIT AND IMPLICIT EXPERTISE

DOI 10.32651/227-72

Issue № 7, 2022, article № 12, pages 72-77

Section: Problems of agroeconomic researches

Language: Russian

Original language title: НЕЧЕТКО-ВОЗМОЖНОСТНЫЙ ПОДХОД ПРИ ОЦЕНИВАНИИ СЕЛЬСКОХОЗЯЙСТВЕННЫХ ТЕХНОЛОГИЙ НА ОСНОВЕ ЯВНЫХ И НЕЯВНЫХ ЭКСПЕРТНЫХ ЗНАНИЙ

Keywords: MULTIVARIATE CONVOLUTION, AGGREGATION, FUZZY-POSSIBILITY MODEL, GRASS FORAGE PRODUCTION, EXPERT KNOWLEDGE, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION

Abstract: The use of expertise (EK) and the accumulated experience of highly qualified specialists in agriculture are traditional and ubiquitous. This practice is explained by the difficulty of modeling agricultural processes and technologies by deterministic mathematical methods. However, to date, a fuzzy-possibility approach has been developed to formalize explicit and implicit EP in the form of mathematical models in a multifactorial space for solving practical problems. Two examples of constructing fuzzy-possibility models (FPMs) are considered. The first one is for evaluating and forecasting: yield as a generalized indicator of the efficiency of the technological process for the production of grass feed, and the second one is the content of exchangeable energy in the resulting feed. The tasks were solved according to a unified methodology from a unified position, but each in its own factor space. It is shown that the results of quantitative evaluation using the constructed models make it possible to evaluate the effectiveness of the technologies used, as well as to compare the results obtained with the true state of forage production from grasses in farms, depending on the technologies used by them. The adequacy of calculations based on the actual states of the various applied technologies proposed by the NVM allow us to recommend the considered approach for application in agricultural enterprises of the North-West region of the Russian Federation.

Authors: Spesivtsev Aleksandr Vasilevich, Sukhoparov Aleksei Ivanovich, Spesivtsev Vasilii Aleksandrovich, Semenov Aleksandr Igorevich