TRENDS AND CYCLICAL PATTERNS OF GRAIN PRODUCTION

DOI 10.32651/225-84

Issue № 5, 2022, article № 14, pages 84-90

Section: Agrofood market

Language: Russian

Original language title: ТЕНДЕНЦИИ И ЦИКЛИЧЕСКИЕ ЗАКОНОМЕРНОСТИ ПРОИЗВОДСТВА ЗЕРНА

Keywords: RUSSIAN FEDERATION, NIZHNY NOVGOROD REGION, GRAIN PRODUCTION, ECONOMIC GROWTH, TRENDS, ECONOMIC WAVES, ECONOMIC CYCLE

Abstract: Efficiently functioning grain industry, due to the multitude of inter-industry relations, makes it possible to form a large part of the food supply of the country and its population. Food supply is formed not only at the expense of grain processing products, but also at the expense of livestock products, for which the grain industry is the main supplier of concentrated feed with high protein content. The study, identification and justification of development trends in the grain industry are the key to understanding the processes taking place in the industry. Based on statistical data from 1951 to 2020, the phases of economic growth and decline in grain production in the Russian Federation and the Nizhny Novgorod region, as well as the features of their course in different territories, were identified. Grain production at the level of the country and the region is a system, the elements of which are agricultural organizations with the economic cycles occurring in them. Using harmonic analysis, the effect in grain production of five main waves with a cyclic structure was revealed. The description of the dynamics of the actual size of the gross grain harvest and its size per capita by the waves found is more than 95%. The determination of cyclic patterns in grain production in the Russian Federation and its regions makes it possible to predict the development of the grain industry and timely apply economic measures in accordance with the predicted results of possible scenarios of functioning.

Authors: Suslov Sergei Aleksandrovich