SENSITIVITY OF RUSSIA'S AGRICULTURE TO FOREIGN TRADE POLICY

DOI 10.32651/219-17

Issue № 9, 2021, article № 3, pages 17-22

Section: Program-target management of development of agricultural production

Language: Russian

Original language title: ЧУВСТВИТЕЛЬНОСТЬ РОССИЙСКОГО СЕЛЬСКОГО ХОЗЯЙСТВА К ВНЕШНЕТОРГОВОЙ ПОЛИТИКЕ

Keywords: IMPORT, EXPORT, FOREIGN TRADE POLICY, GRAIN, MILK, SUNFLOWER SEED, LIVESTOCK AND POULTRY, VIAPI MODEL

Abstract: The reaction of Russian agriculture to scenario changes in foreign trade policy is investigated in comparison with the base period of 2013-2017. The research method is scenario modeling using version 2.1 of the numerical model of partial equilibria in the wholesale markets of agricultural products of Russian regions (VIAPI model), which presents the markets of six agricultural products located in 82 constituent entities of the Russian Federation, taking into account transport links between them. Opportunities for such deviations from the foreign trade policy of the base period, which in the short term (within the boundaries of the five-year period) would lead to unequivocally favourable changes in the situation of the country's agriculture without losses for the consumers, have not been identified. It is found that the existing territorial and sectoral structure of the country's agriculture and the current foreign trade policy are well adapted to each other. In particular, in the crop industries, any deviation from the baseline policy leads to the loss of any market participant. A paradoxical effect is revealed: the export-oriented Russian crop production sectors are the beneficiaries of export-cutting policies. Stimulating exports, in line with theoretical expectations, increases production in kind, but milk production turns out to be an exception to this rule. The same applies to product prices: the same measures, as predicted by the theory, cause them to rise, with the exception of milk prices.

Authors: Svetlov Nikolai Mikhailovich