FORECASTING OF TERRITORIAL AND SECTORAL STRUCTURE OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION

Issue № 9, 2013, article № 8, pages 57-62

Section: Location of production

Language: Russian

Original language title: ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЕ ТЕРРИТОРИАЛЬНО-ОТРАСЛЕВОЙ СТРУКТУРЫ СЕЛЬСКОХОЗЯЙСТВЕННОГО ПРОИЗВОДСТВА

Keywords: CONCEPTUAL APPROACHES, TERRITORIAL AND BRANCH STRUCTURE, TIME SERIES, THE PARAMETERS OF INTERCHANGEABILITY, THE LAWS, THE OPTIMAL PLAN

Abstract: Analyzing various methods and approaches to forecasting of indicators, the author concludes that the forecast of manufacture and consumption of agricultural products is not limited to the extrapolation of individual economic index. To ensure the sustainable production of agricultural products and raw materials necessary identify patterns in the change in production and consumption of main types of agricultural products and identify options for their interchangeability. Decision of complex tasks in view of all branches of agricultural production is still a complicated process. It is therefore proposed to solve the task blocks. Each block usually corresponds to one or more friends for the process industries. Of other industries accounted for using constants calculated empirically on the basis of actual, regulatory and forecast data for a particular region or in aggregate. Forecasting the development of territorial and sectoral structure of agricultural production should be carried out in several variants depending on the impact of internal and external factors. Forecasts should be based on an analysis of a modern condition of the agricultural sector, the main factors of economic growth and the estimation of their influence on the development of production in the future.

Authors: Kuzmenkova Vera Dzhabrailovna