CONCEPTUAL ASPECTS OF DEVELOPING A SYSTEM OF MODELS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF REGIONAL AGRI-FOOD SYSTEMS TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE CLIMATIC FACTOR
Issue № 6, 2021, article № 13, pages 83-92
Section: Problems of agroeconomic researches
Original language title: КОНЦЕПТУАЛЬНЫЕ АСПЕКТЫ РАЗРАБОТКИ СИСТЕМЫ МОДЕЛЕЙ РАЗВИТИЯ РЕГИОНАЛЬНЫХ АГРОПРОДОВОЛЬСТВЕННЫХ СИСТЕМ С УЧЕТОМ КЛИМАТИЧЕСКОГО ФАКТОРА
Abstract: The article discusses the results of research on the development of model tools to substantiate the directions of strategic development and placement of agriculture in regional agri-food systems, taking into account long-term climatic changes. The developed system of models for carrying out variant calculations when justifying the directions of strategic development of agri-food systems, taking into account long-term climatic changes, includes models of yields of major crops, cost functions in crop and livestock production, functions of per capita food consumption. The system of economic and mathematical models is designed to obtain predictive estimates of the socio-economic development of the agri-food systems in the regions in the context of the following groups of indicators: production of agricultural products of the main types; food consumption in the regions; deficits and surpluses of food in the regions according to their respective types, taking into account the current trends. The listed characteristics are predicted for the long term in two versions, the first of which provides the development of the regional agri-food systems as a continuation of the existing trends (climatic scenario RCP8.5), and the second as a consequence of the influence of control actions from the state in order to achieve optimal environmental and economic parameters of development (climatic scenario RCP4.5).