SHORT-TERM GRAIN BALANCE FORECASTING TECHNOLOGY

DOI 10.32651/214-64

Issue № 4, 2021, article № 11, pages 64-69

Section: Problems of agroeconomic researches

Language: Russian

Original language title: ТЕХНОЛОГИЯ ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЯ ЗЕРНОВЫХ БАЛАНСОВ НА КРАТКОСРОЧНУЮ ПЕРСПЕКТИВУ

Keywords: GRAIN RESOURCES BALANCE, GRAIN EXPORT FORECAST, GRAIN SUPPLIERS AND CONSUMERS, INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY, CLIMATE ADAPTATION, INTERREGIONAL TRANSPORTATION

Abstract: The article presents the technology of forecasting grain balances for the short term at the Russia Federal and regional levels. The technology uses previously compiled forecasts of grain and leguminous crop yields in the Russian Federation regions and in Russia as a whole, as well as forecasts of sown areas for their production. In addition, the calculations use forecasts of the Russian Federation population, developed in Federal State Statistics Service and the Ministry of Economic Development. The technology predicts the production of grain and leguminous crops at the level of regions and the Russian Federation, the initial and final grain reserves at the beginning and end of the projected balance year, the consumption (use) of grain in the regions, including: production consumption, processing of grain for flour, cereals, feed and other types of processing, grain losses, personal consumption of grain by the population and final grain reserves. The unknown variables in the balance equation are the importation of grain to the regions, including imports, and the exportation of grain from the regions, including exports. The difference between these two variables at the level of the Russian Federation represents the annual export potential of grain in the Russian Federation, which is projected together with the annual volume of interregional grain transportation. The technology allows you to forecast grain balances in the short term for their further use in forecasting the routing and volume of grain transportation between the regions of the Russian Federation and for export.

Authors: Sobolev Oleg Serafimovich