SCENARIO FORECASTING OF GRAIN PRODUCTION IN THE REGIONS OF RUSSIA DEPENDING ON EXTREME CLIMATIC PARAMETERS

DOI 10.32651/213-81

Issue № 3, 2021, article № 15, pages 81-87

Section: Problems of agroeconomic researches

Language: Russian

Original language title: СЦЕНАРНОЕ ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЕ ПРОИЗВОДСТВА ЗЕРНОВЫХ КУЛЬТУР В РЕГИОНАХ РОССИИ В ЗАВИСИМОСТИ ОТ ЭКСТРЕМАЛЬНЫХ КЛИМАТИЧЕСКИХ ПАРАМЕТРОВ

Keywords: CLIMATE, SCENARIOS, REGIONS, PRODUCTIVITY, GRAIN CROPS, SCENARIO FORECASTING

Abstract: The article discusses the problem of assessing the impact of long-term climatic changes on the yield and gross production of major grain crops in the regions of Russia. An estimate is given of the ten-year average gross harvests of such grain crops as wheat, rye, corn, oats, barley, buckwheat, sorghum, triticale for the forecast period up to 2100. Estimated values ​​of cereal crops production were obtained for two climatic scenarios - the baseline scenario, which provides for the preservation of unchanged characteristics of climatic dynamics and volumes of greenhouse gas emissions, and the scenario with some adaptation measures to climate change.

Authors: Romanenko Irina Anatolevna, Evdokimova Natalia Egorovna