FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE PORK MARKET IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION

DOI 10.32651/207-75

Issue № 7, 2020, article № 14, pages 75-81

Section: Problems of agroeconomic researches

Language: Russian

Original language title: ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЕ РАЗВИТИЯ РЫНКА СВИНИНЫ В РОССИЙСКОЙ ФЕДЕРАЦИИ

Keywords: PORK MARKET, PORK PRODUCTION DYNAMICS, PORK SALES DYNAMICS, AVERAGE PRODUCER PRICES, PORK MARKET FORECAST

Abstract: The article analyzed the development of the Russian pork market for the period 2009-2018. Predicting the development of the pork market is one way to minimize the risks of related economic activity. Experience shows that statistical and eco-econometrics are relatively rarely used to predict the development of the market in the agri-food sector. Most of the tests and run-ups are based on expert experience. Experts say that Russia's exports will continue to grow for all types of meat, in particular pork. Prices will also continue to rise. However, there is a high risk of AES, both in Russia and in European exporting countries - which has serious consequences for the pork market. Operational study of the pork market, the forecast of its development, should be carried out constantly, taking into account the different degree of connection of the results. All of this will enable the necessary management decisions to be better met and more effective for business. The study analyzed the dynamics of pork production and sales in Russia. The means of correlation analysis have received an equation of supply in the Russian pork market. The expolational analysis has obtained forecasts of pork production in the promising period 2019-2020 and the average price forecast for pork producers for 2019 is calculated.

Authors: Nifontova Ekaterina Alekseevna, Romanov Andrei Nikolaevich