GRAIN AND LEGUMINOUS CROPS MODELING YIELD IN THE LONG-TERM CLIMATE CHANGE CONDITIONS

DOI 10.32651/206-99

Issue № 6, 2020, article № 16, pages 99-104

Section: Problems of agroeconomic researches

Language: Russian

Original language title: МОДЕЛИРОВАНИЕ УРОЖАЙНОСТИ ЗЕРНОВЫХ И ЗЕРНОБОБОВЫХ КУЛЬТУР В УСЛОВИЯХ ДОЛГОСРОЧНЫХ КЛИМАТИЧЕСКИХ ИЗМЕНЕНИЙ

Keywords: YIELD MODELING, YIELD OF GRAIN AND LEGUME CROPS, CMIP6 MODEL DATA FORMAT, LONG-TERM CLIMATE CHANGE, REGRESSION EQUATION, TAMBOV REGION CLIMATE, MONTHLY AVERAGE PRECIPITATION, ADAPTATION TO WEATHER ANOMALIES, RECLAIMED LAND

Abstract: Grain and leguminous crops yield forecasting model in the Russian region in a changing climate is presented in the article. The forecast is given for the short-term medium-term and long-term period. The model is given by the linear regression equation, in which variables are such climatic indicators as: the sum of daily precipitation in the region from April to August and the sum of average monthly temperatures for the same period. The regression equation is composed of statistical data for the Tambov region from 1995 to 2018. The climate forecasting data such as average monthly air temperature and average monthly daily precipitation in the region obtained from the INM-CM4 Russian Sciences Academy Computational Mathematics Institute climate model were used to calculate the short-term, medium-term and long-term forecast. The scheme for converting climate modeling data from the CMIP6 models complex format into the office data processing format is given in this article. The result of the work is a short-term forecast of the yield of grain and leguminous crops in the Tambov region for the next 3 years: 2019 -2021 and long-term forecast for 2030, 2040, 2050, and 2100. Studies have predicted a decrease in the yield of cereals and leguminous in the Tambov region before the end of the 21st century by an average of 24‰ under the influence of a changing climate. In conclusion, a recommendation is made on the expansion of reclaimed land in the region.

Authors: Sobolev Oleg Serafimovich