QUANTIFICATION OF UNCERTAINTY LEVEL IN THE EVALUATION OF PRODUCTION EFFICIENCY

DOI 10.32651/198-82

Issue № 8, 2019, article № 15, pages 82-86

Section: Problems of agroeconomic researches

Language: Russian

Original language title: КОЛИЧЕСТВЕННОЕ ОПРЕДЕЛЕНИЕ УРОВНЯ НЕОПРЕДЕЛЁННОСТИ ПРИ ОЦЕНКЕ ЭФФЕКТИВНОСТИ ПРОИЗВОДСТВА

Keywords: PRODUCTION EFFICIENCY, THE UNCERTAINTY RATIO OF POSSIBLE LOSSES, RISK, RISKY SITUATION

Abstract: The article analysed existing methods of uncertainty assessment, highlighted their advantages and disadvantages. The risk assessment methods and indicators used are based on a subjective definition of the level of risk, which cannot positively affect the accuracy and validity of the indicator. Therefore, a universal methodology was developed and proposed, including step-by-step quantitative and qualitative risk assessment. In order to estimate possible losses as a result of a risk situation, we have developed and proposed a coefficient of possible losses in conditions of uncertainty. The use of the methodology allows assessing the efficiency of agricultural production and possible risks of losses, to choose the most acceptable way of development of the enterprise, taking into account possible risk losses. The relationship between the profit from the sale of agricultural products per 1 rubles of investments and investments per 100 hectares of agricultural land, possible losses from the onset of a risk situation is shown. The head of the farm, based on an assessment of the probability of alternatives and available resources, selects an investment level suitable for the optimal cost-effectiveness parameters.

Authors: Kolobov Dmitrii Sergeevich