FORECAST ASSESSMENT OF CATTLE BREEDING DEVELOPMENT IN VORONEZH REGION

DOI 10.32651/192-54

Issue № 2, 2019, article № 9, pages 54-59

Section: Agrofood market

Language: Russian

Original language title: ПРОГНОЗНАЯ ОЦЕНКА РАЗВИТИЯ СКОТОВОДСТВА ВОРОНЕЖСКОЙ ОБЛАСТИ

Keywords: VORONEZH REGION, CATTLE BREEDING, EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING METHOD, FORECASTING, DEVELOPMENT

Abstract: To solve the problems of forecasting, a comprehensive use of the normative method is proposed, which allows for the design of indicators reflecting development goals, and exponential smoothing method with a damped trend that solves the problem of assessing the reality of the set goals and reasoning the dynamics of their achievement. As goals for the development of cattle breeding in the region, the indicators specified in the Strategy for Social and Economic Development of the Region and reflecting the expected state of the industry are used. The indicators specified in the Strategy for Social and Economic Development of the Region and reflecting the expected state of the industry are used as goals for the development of cattle breeding in the region. Forecast calculations of dairy and beef cattle breeding development in the region were carried out according to three scenarios: inertial, basic, and compromise. To achieve the parameters of the basic development scenario while maintaining the growth trends in dairy and meat productivity of cattle by 2025, it will be necessary to increase the average annual number of cattle in all categories of farms in Voronezh region to 511.0 thousand, the average annual number of cows in agricultural organizations - up to 154.8 thousand, in peasant (farmer) farms - up to 17.9 thousand, while reducing the number of cows in the households down to 25.0 thousand animals. The implementation of the basic scenario will allow for an increase in milk production by 27.3‰, and for beef - by 6.2‰ (in agricultural organizations and peasant (farmer) farms - by 32.1‰). In case of following the conditions of the basic development scenario, the profitability level of cattle breeding in the agricultural organizations of the region by 2025 may reach 23-25‰ excluding subsidies, while the output of specialized beef cattle breeding may reach the level of sustainable break-even results without taking into account the subsidies not earlier than in 2030.

Authors: Riabova Evgeniia Petrovna, Ulezko Andrei Valerevich