TECHNIQUE OF FORECASTING AND AN ASSESSMENT OF POSSIBLE LOSSES IN BUSINESS

Issue № 11, 2014, article № 10, pages 62-66

Section: Problems of agroeconomic researches

Language: Russian

Original language title: МЕТОДИКА ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЯ И ОЦЕНКИ ВОЗМОЖНЫХ ПОТЕРЬ В ПРЕДПРИНИМАТЕЛЬСТВЕ

Keywords: UNCERTAINTY, LOSSES, FORECASTING, ALTERNATIVE OPTIONS

Abstract: In the conditions of market economy the uncertainty level assessment by drawing up forecasts is one of the defining factors for acceptance and the subsequent realization by businessmen of the received forecasts. The author is offered to divide values of coefficient of a variation into groups proceeding from probability of approach of an event and possible consequences at approach of a risk situation. On the basis of the carried-out analysis of data of 60 farms of the Nizhny Novgorod Region research on three types of agricultural production is executed: to grain, milk and gain of cattle. The developed technique of an assessment of forecasting and an assessment of possible losses will allow the head of business to choose the most acceptable way of development of the enterprise at the available production resources, considering possible risk losses.

Authors: Kolobov Dmitrii Sergeevich