FORECASTING OF CROP PRODUCTION ON AN INNOVATIVE BASIS IN STAVROPOL KRAI

DOI 10.32651/2070-0288-2018-9-68-71

Issue № 9, 2018, article № 11, pages 68-71

Section: Problems of agroeconomic researches

Language: Russian

Original language title: ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЕ ПРОИЗВОДСТВА ПРОДУКЦИИ РАСТЕНИЕВОДСТВА НА ИННОВАЦИОННОЙ ОСНОВЕ В СТАВРОПОЛЬСКОМ КРАЕ

Keywords: REGIONAL ECONOMY, CROP PRODUCTION, FORECASTING, RURAL ECONOMY, INNOVATIVE DEVELOPMENT

Abstract: Forecasting of branch and regional processes is an integral part of management process on which economic and social consequences of development of territories, efficiency of use of labour, natural and material and material resources considerably depend. Sustainable development of crop production in conditions of the increased risks and uncertainty is demanded by developments of scientifically based techniques of improvement of development plans for the market in general with use of the formalized methods of identification of regularities of development and forecasting. In this regard, increase of a role of forecasting in market systems, is caused by global transformations of external conditions, adaptation of state regulation of market structures, further integration of branch with other branches of agrarian and industrial complex and the WTO. On the basis of these 2000-2016 the specification of trend model is executed; projection in a section of three trajectories of the forecast is made: inert, optimistic and pessimistic. The forecast of production of vegetables is constructed on the basis of structural and logical interrelations between groups of productive and factorial indicators.

Authors: Gerasimov Aleksei Nikolaevich, Gromov Evgenii Ivanovich, Skripnichenko IUrii Sergeevich